Russia’s war against Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of President Vladimir Putin’s military and intelligence machine. Even with alternative centers of power, Putin remains in charge due to the atomization of the Russian population and elites through repression. The recent mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary army, is unlikely to bring significant change. Putin’s decision to support Wagner, despite funding it, has proven to be a flaw as the group had too much autonomy. Prigozhin’s rise to power and influence began during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where Wagner’s fighters played a crucial role. Despite his insubordination, Putin initially ignored Prigozhin’s actions. However, when Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu pushed for Wagner to be brought under control, Prigozhin revolted and tried to force Putin to fire his rivals. While Prigozhin was able to seize the city of Rostov-on-Don and move closer to Moscow, Putin’s refusal to meet his demands rendered the mutiny pointless. The incident was a major embarrassment for Putin and revealed the weaknesses of Russia’s domestic security machine. Nevertheless, no figures from within the regime or military units joined the mutiny, and most officials pledged their loyalty to the president. The Kremlin’s response to the mutiny includes dismantling Prigozhin’s network, confiscating his funds, and pressuring Wagner fighters’ families to dissuade them from following Prigozhin. This response aims to strengthen the regime’s foundations and allow for the absorption of Wagner into the Russian army. By eliminating Wagner, Putin removes a significant threat to his rule and avoids potential conspiracies among his top lieutenants. The decay within the regime is substantial, but as long as elements such as public apathy, inertia, fear, and petrodollars are present, no rapid solution to the problem of Putin can be expected.
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