Oil and gas consumption within the U.S. is predicted to fall by 16 percent by 2035 due to the implementation of the clean energy stimulus Inflation Reduction Act, according to advocacy group Oil Change International.
But, in a report released by the group this week, it’s also predicted that this bill’s support for oil and gas will result in a rise in gas production. This is expected to occur even as the U.S. economy switches to electric power, with the excess produced to be exported and burned overseas.
Some of the bill’s policy architects proudly tout the fact that due to the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. will be producing fossil fuels at record levels. This was highlighted by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in September in The Wall Street Journal.
However, the Biden administration, despite recommendations from its own scientists, failed to commit to the notion that the fossil fuel industry must decline to ensure a safe climate.
Additionally, a recent U.N. report suggests that severe emissions cuts are necessary by 2030 to avoid dangerous levels of planetary heating.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres underscored the severity of this overshot and emphasized the need for a significant shift. He referred to this as a serious “canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives, and broken records,” and expressed that it is a betrayal of the vulnerable and a missed opportunity considering that renewable energy has never been more affordable and accessible.
Despite the challenges, projections from the model that estimated IRA impacts suggest that the U.S. is headed in the right direction and will be able to reduce emissions by 2030. However, the U.S. is not keeping up with its commitments to reduce emissions by 2030.
In a follow-up, it was still possible to meet the Biden climate goal if Congress, the presidency, and local governments all worked together. Unfortunately, with the House controlled by the GOP and the majority of state legislatures, such unified action is currently unlikely.
The U.N. recognizes the importance of these numbers as a starting point, and it’s clear that a much deeper and more extensive economic transformation will be necessary.
The challenge, as highlighted by advocacy group Oil Change International, is more political than technological. Despite giant batteries outcompeting gas plants, battery companies continue to struggle against the myths perpetuated by the gas industry in the policy and regulation arena.
