Former President Donald J. Trump will not be attending the first debate of the 2024 presidential primary in Milwaukee. However, the rest of the Republican field is now mostly set for the event. Eight candidates have qualified for the stage, including Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota, former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, former Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Governor Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina.
A few others, such as businessman Perry Johnson, Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez, and talk-show host Larry Elder, are still uncertain of their status. These candidates claim to have enough donors and meet the polling requirements, but the party’s assessment of their polling status remains unclear.
The Republican National Committee (R.N.C.) has established rules for qualifying polls, but they have not specified which surveys are acceptable, leaving some ambiguity. The official announcement of candidates who have made the cut is expected on Tuesday.
Candidates were also required by Republican officials to sign a pledge of support for the party’s nominee. However, one candidate, former congressman Will Hurd, has refused to sign the pledge due to his opposition to Mr. Trump.
With Mr. Trump opting out of the debate and citing his significant lead in the polls, much attention is expected to be focused on Mr. DeSantis, who has consistently polled in second place. The debate will be broadcast on Fox News, with Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum as moderators.
The debate marks the first moment for many voters to tune into the contest and learn about the candidates, despite their months of campaigning in early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Candidates recognize the importance of speaking directly to a wide audience.
However, it remains unclear how much the debate will impact a race where Mr. Trump is the clear frontrunner. The hosts plan to incorporate his presence through quotes and clips, even though he will not be on the stage. The race has largely revolved around Mr. Trump, with candidates repeatedly questioned about his actions and positions.
Candidates have been preparing for the debate, with Mr. DeSantis hiring a debate coach, Mr. Pence holding practice sessions, and Mr. Ramaswamy consulting with advisers on his private plane. Only Mr. Christie and Mr. Pence have prior experience participating in presidential-level debates, giving them an advantage.
The debate will provide a national introduction for candidates like Mr. Burgum, and an opportunity for others to highlight their biographies and positions, such as Mr. Hutchinson, a vocal Trump critic within the party.
Breaking through the media attention surrounding Mr. Trump will require a standout moment for the candidates. However, their strategies have not been publicly revealed. Taunting Mr. Trump for skipping the debate has been unsuccessful in luring him in, though Mr. Christie has expressed his eagerness to challenge him.
It remains unclear how much focus the rest of the candidates will place on Mr. Trump, or if they will engage in rivalries among themselves to establish their position as the leading challenger.
Ahead of the debate, Mr. DeSantis is expected to face the most attacks as the leading candidate on the stage. Mr. Scott has gained some traction in Iowa, rising to third place in polls, but has not caught up to Mr. DeSantis or Mr. Trump.
Ms. Haley has positioned herself as a middle-ground candidate, emphasizing the need to move past Mr. Trump without overly criticizing his administration. Mr. Pence has faced challenges due to his perceived betrayal of Mr. Trump by some voters, but his confrontation with him has made him a critical witness in one federal indictment.
Despite not participating in the debate, Mr. Trump maintains a presence through his recorded interview with Tucker Carlson and his impending surrender to authorities in Georgia following his indictment in a criminal conspiracy related to the 2020 election. These legal troubles have not significantly affected his support in the polls.
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