America is currently experiencing an increase in Covid hospitalizations, marking the first surge of this year. However, experts assure that there is no need for alarm. Recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reveals that there were 8,000 patients admitted to hospitals nationwide last week, a 12% increase compared to the previous seven days. This rise in hospitalizations is the first week-on-week increase since December.
Although there has been an increase, it’s important to note that the rates of hospitalizations remain historically low. To put it into perspective, during the peak of the pandemic in January 2021, there were approximately 150,000 Covid admissions per week, with hospitalizations reaching as high as 44,000 per week earlier this year. Additionally, the number of deaths has remained static and is currently at its lowest level since the emergence of Covid, averaging around 500 per week.
Experts suggest that the increase in hospitalizations may be due to the natural waning of immunity, which typically occurs around six months after the previous wave of infections. This trend of rising hospitalizations in the US has now continued for the second consecutive week, possibly driven by declining immunity levels.
An interesting observation from a map depicting hospitalization rates for Covid per 100,000 people shows higher rates in the South and West regions of the country. This highlights potential regional disparities in hospitalizations.
Despite concerns raised by some experts who fear that crowded theaters and gatherings could contribute to the spread of the virus, it is still too early to determine if this has had a significant impact as infections take several weeks to appear in hospitals. However, even the CDC remains unconcerned about this possibility, with officials noting that deaths have significantly decreased, reaching the lowest levels ever recorded.
Dr. Brendan Jackson, a Covid incident manager for the CDC in Atlanta, Georgia, describes the recent decline in cases as resembling a ski slope, with a slight increase resembling a small ski jump at the bottom. The CDC spokeswoman further emphasizes that the US continues to experience historically low Covid rates after seven months of consistent decline. Additionally, early indicators of Covid activity, such as emergency department visits, test positivity, and wastewater levels, preceded the increase in hospitalizations observed in the past week.
Estimations suggest that around 96% of Americans have attained a level of immunity to Covid through a combination of past infections and vaccinations. While the effectiveness of the vaccines may begin to wane after six months, they still offer protection against severe illness.
When asked about the driving factors behind this trend, Dr. Michael Osterholm, an infectious diseases expert at the CDC, highlights the role of waning immunity, which has been observed repeatedly throughout the pandemic. He suggests that future waves may become a pattern similar to summer and winter.
Data shows that hospitalization rises are primarily occurring in the South and West regions of the United States. However, the severity of illnesses among hospitalized patients and the duration of hospital stays are not specified in the released data.
Although Covid deaths have not yet increased, it is important to note that hospitalization can often lead to fatalities within two to three weeks. Due to the decreasing number of people being tested for Covid, the CDC is no longer publishing data on cases.
The link between the increase in Covid hospitalizations and a specific variant is unclear. Currently, the most common strain in America is XBB.1.16, also known as ‘Arcturus,’ accounting for 14% of cases. It is followed by XBB.1.9.1, representing 13.2% of cases, and XBB.2.3, accounting for 13% of cases.
Leading medical professionals, such as Dr. Marc Siegel from New York University, urge Americans not to be overly concerned. They believe that the slight increase in hospitalizations is merely a small flare-up and not indicative of another surge due to the significant level of immunity present from prior infections and vaccinations. Additionally, most infections within the Omicron family remain mild, and hospitalizations have only seen a minor uptick.
Dr. Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, also seeks to alleviate fears by emphasizing that the current uptick is far from a major storm. She compares it to meteorologists monitoring a distant storm, uncertain of its potential to gain strength or even reach land but watching the conditions closely.
It is worth noting that Covid hospitalization rates have risen annually since the virus first emerged. Last year, hospitalizations gradually increased from April and began to decline in August. Similarly, hospitalizations rose from July 2021 until late August before starting to trend downward again.
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