The Wagner Group, a mercenary force closely tied to the Putinist state, has established a notorious reputation for meddling in foreign politics and ensuring the success of its preferred regimes. While they have recently gained infamy for their brutal attacks on Bakhmut, Ukraine, the group initially developed its expertise in political control in Africa, supporting governments aligned with their interests in countries like the Central African Republic, Sudan, and Libya.
However, the events of the past 24 hours indicate a meticulously planned effort to manipulate President Vladimir Putin and potentially threaten his rule. Initially appearing as a far-fetched attempt, it quickly escalated into a military incursion towards Moscow. Recent developments suggest that a deal has been struck with the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin. If the agreement fulfills Prigozhin’s demand to remove Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, it could grant him greater influence over Russia’s war efforts.
The extent of planning behind this operation is evident. Prigozhin, once Putin’s caterer of choice, has emerged as a ruthless figure within the Russian oligarchy, and this political move may well be his masterpiece. Preparations, likely underway for months, involved stockpiling and positioning military supplies such as armored vehicles and air-defense systems within Russia. Prigozhin’s public complaints about supply shortages now appear to have been a facade. This enabled his forces to swiftly enter action and establish a logistical network capable of covering vast distances within a day. The Russian military, currently resisting Ukraine’s counteroffensive, must be envious of their efficiency.
The timing of this plot is also noteworthy. With the Ukrainian counteroffensive in full swing for almost three weeks, the bulk of the Russian army, comprising 80 to 90 percent of its strength, has been deployed to Ukraine and engaged in combat. Simultaneously, the Ukrainians have actively targeted the Russian army’s logistical infrastructure within Ukraine. Putin found himself unable to draw upon these forces to counter Wagner’s actions. Ordering Russian troops to retreat or redeploy from Ukraine would weaken Russia’s defensive line, and any movement would have taken considerable time due to the army’s inefficiencies.
Hence, Prigozhin’s timing proved advantageous. Putin had to choose between relying on a small number of potentially disloyal troops left in Russia or accepting the risk and delay of ordering frontline troops back from Ukraine. Prigozhin’s operation exploited ideal locations—the cities of Rostov and Voronezh, vital transportation hubs for the Russian army in Ukraine. These cities served as stockpiles for military equipment, and by seizing control of them, Prigozhin effectively strangled the Russian army’s operations.
It remains uncertain whether the Wagner fighters expected wider support. Nevertheless, it is striking to witness the lack of organized military resistance against Wagner’s advances, even as they approached Moscow. There have been only a few ineffective attacks, with little evidence of coordinated resistance on Putin’s behalf. Reports suggest that Wagner successfully downed multiple Russian helicopters and aircraft, potentially equaling Russia’s losses during heavy fighting in Ukraine.
The question of whether Prigozhin will reap the benefits of such meticulous planning remains. Reports indicate that Putin has been compelled to strike a deal with Prigozhin, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, in order to call off the Wagner Group. The details are still emerging, but the fact that Putin was willing to settle after labeling Prigozhin a criminal earlier in the day speaks volumes. If Putin agrees to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov, it would be a significant triumph for Prigozhin. However, if Shoigu and Gerasimov remain in their positions following the withdrawal of Wagner, all of Prigozhin’s planning may have been in vain, leaving him with no choice but to devise new plans to ensure his survival.
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