In the current state of the 2024 race, President Joe Biden is seemingly on track for a rematch against his predecessor, Donald Trump. However, this matchup is widely unpopular among the public and pundits alike. In fact, around 70% of the public expressed their opposition to both Biden and Trump running for president in an August poll, which aligns with previous surveys conducted in 2023. Numerous newspaper columnists at the national and local level have expressed their dissatisfaction with this “awful” matchup, describing a sense of impending doom and the public going through the famous stages of grief.
The main grievances with this rematch revolve around personal factors, particularly age. If either Biden, who is 80 years old, or Trump, who is 77 years old, were to win the 2024 race, they would become the oldest presidents ever elected. This would mark the third consecutive election to break such a record. Trump, who has been impeached twice and indicted four times, is seen as a disrespectful figure who poses a threat to the foundations of American democracy. On the other hand, Biden is perceived as dull and lacking energy. He doesn’t evoke excitement or captivate his audience.
However, it’s important to view the likely Biden-Trump contest in a different light. Rather than seeing it as a rerun, it should be seen as a rare reboot that elevates the stakes. Both men are taking positions that reject past governing commitments in ways we haven’t seen before. Biden is challenging the neoliberal paradigm that has dominated American domestic and foreign policy for the past four decades. While previous Democratic presidents, such as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, have done so to some extent, Biden is actually implementing policies that mark the end of this era.
Biden is essentially basing his presidency on moving beyond economic policies that have held sway in the U.S. since Ronald Reagan’s presidency. Trump, on the other hand, seeks to transform the presidency into something resembling a monarchy. He has shifted away from traditional conservative discourse of “tax and spend” and instead launched an all-out attack on government institutions. While he still supports tax cuts for the wealthy and reduced government spending, his main focus is placing the administrative state, including law enforcement and investigatory bodies, under his direct control. He aims to weaken civil service protections and agency independence to ensure the government operates according to his wishes.
Candidates from major parties often run on opposing platforms, but it’s rare to see such significant challenges to existing governing commitments. Previous presidents, like George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, sought to extend the political and policy changes initiated during Reagan’s tenure. While Clinton and Obama occasionally opposed these changes, they either couldn’t move past Reagan-era commitments or acquiesced to them. In the current scenario, neither Biden nor Trump fit the mold of a Bush, Clinton, or Obama. They are both running as if they were Reagan, aiming to reject the status quo and initiate something new.
This perspective on candidates and political regimes draws from the work of presidential historian Stephen Skowronek and his book “The Politics Presidents Make.” Skowronek argues that the presidency, with its powerful executive authority and direct connection to the national electorate, inherently disrupts political orders. These orders go through cycles of establishment and destabilization, represented by different types of presidents. Reconstructive presidents, such as Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, and Reagan, fundamentally reshaped the constitutional order by changing the way government is managed and parties are mobilized.
Reconstructive presidencies are rare, and they are usually preceded by disjunctive presidents. These solo operators, often outsiders to politics or their parties, position themselves as managerial experts who propose significant changes. However, they struggle to reconcile the contradictions they create and ultimately flounder. Trump’s first term aligns with this disjunctive type. He was an outsider who became president on the promise of his managerial expertise, but he couldn’t disentangle the knots he created within his party’s governing coalition. His presidency weakened the Republican Party, leading to their loss of Congress and the White House in a single term.
However, Trump also displayed elements of a reconstructive president. He broke norms and attempted to change electoral and governing arrangements, with his 2021 coup attempt being the most extreme example. His legacy was highly debated among political theorists at the time. In his third run for the presidency, Trump is clearly aiming to construct a new regime based on Reagan’s legacy. Conversely, Biden is leading a reconstructive effort in a different manner. He presents himself as the advocate for sane, stable government, protector of democracy, and promoter of political unity and shared purpose. However, there are limitations to Biden’s reconstruction, as he has not broken certain norms or taken on significant challenges like previous reconstructive presidents.
It’s important to note that not everyone agrees that both candidates are taking a reconstructive approach. Some argue that Biden has not played the role of a reconstructive leader, as he has not built new parties or confronted the courts. According to Skowronek, Trump built a new party and is poised to return as a reconstructive leader. He has already transformed his party and its ideological commitments.
The 2024 election stands out because both Biden and Trump represent reconstructive efforts in their own ways. While there may be differing opinions on the extent of their reconstruction, it is clear that both candidates are seeking to depart from the past and establish new governing orders. Whether they succeed in their respective endeavors remains to be seen.
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