In Thailand’s recent general election, Anat Wongmadthong, an office worker in Bangkok, eagerly cast his vote for Move Forward, a progressive party promising to break away from years of military rule. However, despite Move Forward’s unexpected victory, its former partner, the Pheu Thai party founded by billionaire and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, made a deal with the military-backed government that would maintain military influence in Thai politics. This decision has left many Thai citizens feeling deeply disappointed. They had hoped for a change from the usual political climate.
Srettha Thavisin, a member of the Pheu Thai party, was appointed prime minister with the support of senators appointed by the military government. This turn of events surprised many, as the military had previously blocked Move Forward candidate Pita Limjaroenrat. The Pheu Thai party, originally founded by Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 coup, made a risky move by opposing Move Forward. This decision has given legitimacy to the military-backed government, according to Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Thailand’s Naresuan University.
The deal struck between the Pheu Thai party and the military government has raised suspicions among many Thais. Thaksin’s return to Thailand after 15 years of self-imposed exile on the same day Srettha became prime minister suggests that there may be more to the agreement than meets the eye. Thaksin, despite being convicted of corruption and abuse of power, is unlikely to spend much time behind bars. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a senior fellow at Chulalongkorn University, describes Thaksin as a cunning individual who always keeps a trump card up his sleeve.
Thaksin, during his time as prime minister, alienated the royalist-military establishment and urban elites while gaining the support of working-class Thais through policies that addressed inequality and rural development. He played a significant role in reshaping Thai politics and winning the hearts and minds of many citizens. However, collaborating with the military may have lasting political consequences. Thailand has a long history of coups and judicial intervention to suppress challenges to the conservative establishment. The Pheu Thai party, once seen as a champion of democracy, now appears to be a conservative, pro-establishment party, damaging its reputation.
Although Pheu Thai came in second in the recent election, it is now outnumbered by military-aligned MPs in its new coalition. It is speculated that military-backed parties will hold key defense positions in the new government, including possibly the interior ministry. As prime minister, Srettha lacks his own power base. He was overshadowed during the campaign by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter and a senior member of the Pheu Thai party. Pheu Thai’s MPs are not loyal to Srettha and did not rely on his popularity to get elected. Thaksin’s return suggests that the Shinawatras are once again exerting their influence.
Srettha, known for his business credentials and past role as the CEO of Sansiri, a major property developer in Thailand, has taken the lead in promoting a populist agenda, including plans to give digital wallets worth 10,000 baht ($285) to all Thais over the age of 16 at a cost of $16 billion. The new government’s main focus is reviving Thailand’s economy, the second-largest in Southeast Asia, which heavily relies on trade and tourism. Despite implementing significant stimulus spending, the economy has struggled to recover, with growth slowing to 1.8% year on year in the second quarter.
The political uncertainty following the election has unsettled investors, causing Thailand’s stock index to decline by 7.6% in dollar terms, making it one of the worst-performing markets in the region. Foreign investors have withdrawn a net $3.8 billion from the Thai stock market since the beginning of the year. Move Forward, the party that unanimously voted against Srettha’s appointment as prime minister, faces additional challenges. The constitutional court is currently examining whether the party’s proposal to reform the lèse majesté law, which criminalizes insults to the monarchy, constitutes a threat to the government. This case could lead to the dissolution of the party. Move Forward’s leader, Pita, is also under investigation for his ownership of shares in a defunct television broadcaster.
The return of Thaksin and the potential pardon he may receive, along with the continued imprisonment of protesters from the 2020 anti-monarchy demonstrations, will further damage Pheu Thai’s credibility. These factors, combined with the muzzling of Move Forward voters in parliament, could ignite a new wave of popular challenges to Thailand’s powerful institutions.
The disappointment with Pheu Thai’s actions is evident among the Thai population. Thaksin’s return has only exacerbated the problems, according to Chambers. “Thaksin is creating more problems by coming back,” he stated.
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