According to a new study, it is highly likely that four out of five emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica’s Bellingshausen Sea region lost their chicks last year due to the disappearance of sea ice beneath their breeding grounds. This phenomenon occurred as parts of the coastal region lost all of their sea ice by November, which was before the penguin chicks had grown waterproof feathers and learned to swim. It is the first time that scientists have observed such a widespread failure across multiple penguin colonies in this area.
Norman Ratcliffe, a seabird ecologist with the British Antarctic Survey and one of the authors of the study, stated that they are unsure if this is a temporary occurrence or a consistent trend with long-term repercussions for the species.
The sea ice levels around Antarctica are projected to reach record low levels in 2023, causing concern among scientists and leading to speculation that Antarctic sea ice is entering an unstable state.
Dr. Ratcliffe suggested that events like the early loss of sea ice and subsequent breeding failures may become more common in the future, signifying a potential future for Antarctica.
The research was conducted using satellite images to track penguin colonies in the remote Bellingshausen Sea region. Emperor penguins rely on sea ice attached to the edge of the Antarctic continent as their habitat for breeding and raising their young until they can swim and take care of themselves.
Although emperor penguins have historically adapted to changing conditions by selecting new breeding grounds, their ability to do so may become limited as more sea ice melts, rendering entire coastal regions inhospitable.
It is estimated that there are currently around 600,000 emperor penguins in the wild, spread across 61 known colonies. The United States has listed the species as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, leading to international efforts to protect the animals and consider their preservation when evaluating projects that emit greenhouse gases.
Aside from human-caused climate change, natural climate phenomena like the recent La Niña in the Pacific Ocean likely contributed to the decrease in sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea. A shift to El Niño conditions this year could potentially alleviate the situation in that region.
As satellite visibility improves with the end of Antarctica’s long polar night, the British Antarctic Survey and researchers from other countries continue to monitor each penguin colony. Newer satellites that track the penguins themselves, rather than just their guano, are expected to enhance population estimates.
Dr. Ratcliffe emphasized that while the study focused on the Bellingshausen Sea region, breeding failure rates were unexpectedly high throughout Antarctica, serving as an important warning.
Annie Schmidt, an ecologist and Antarctica program director at Point Blue Conservation Science, who was not involved in this research, emphasized the significance of this study’s observation of region-wide breeding failure.
Previous research has indicated that if human-caused climate change persists and the planet warms by 2.6 degrees Celsius by 2100, emperor penguins could face a population decline of nearly 90% and be at the brink of extinction. However, if countries achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and limit global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius, emperor penguins will have a better chance of survival. Although they may still experience a 30 to 40% population loss, scientists believe the population could eventually stabilize.
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