Since the global emergence of Omicron in 2021, the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has been following a slower and more predictable path. While new variants of interest have come and gone, none have matched Omicron’s extensive mutations or its rapid spread. However, around two weeks ago, a variant descended from BA.2 appeared with 34 mutations in its spike protein, resembling Omicron in terms of viral evolution. This raised the question of whether it could also spread as quickly and widely as Omicron.
This new variant, named BA.2.86, has now been identified in at least 15 cases across six countries, including Israel, Denmark, South Africa, and the United States. Although this is currently a small number of cases, it is somewhat reassuring. Unfortunately, COVID surveillance has become less of a priority, leading to a decrease in virus sequencing by laboratories worldwide. The reduced surveillance means that a variant could potentially spread unnoticed in various locations, prolonging the time it takes to understand BA.2.86’s potential.
Virologist Thomas Peacock stated that he will closely monitor data from Denmark in the coming weeks. Denmark still has robust SARS-CoV-2 sequencing capabilities and has already detected BA.2.86, allowing for real-time observation of its spread. Until the future of BA.2.86 becomes clearer, three scenarios remain possible.
The worst and least likely scenario is another global surge similar to Omicron. However, BA.2.86 does not seem to be spreading as rapidly. According to Peacock, if it were highly transmissible, it would likely be evident by now, as Omicron’s rapid growth became apparent within a few days.
Scientists are not ruling out the possibility of another Omicron-like surge yet, considering the fragmented viral surveillance worldwide, which hampers a complete global understanding. In 2021, South Africa noticed the impact of Omicron and alerted the rest of the world. However, if BA.2.86 is causing a wave in an area with limited virus sequencing and testing, it could go undetected.
Even in this scenario, the collective immunity developed through vaccinations and previous infections acts as a buffer against the virus. BA.2.86 appears to have similar reinfection capabilities to Omicron based on preliminary mutation analysis by virologist Jesse Bloom. However, there is a significant difference between the two periods. In 2021, there were still numerous individuals who had not been vaccinated or infected, making them vulnerable to the virus. Currently, the majority of the world’s population has either been infected or vaccinated, making it challenging for any variant to spread as effectively as Omicron.
The second and more likely possibility is that BA.2.86 becomes like the other post-Omicron variants: transmissible enough to replace a previous variant but not transmissible enough to cause a significant surge. Since the original Omicron variant (BA.1) took over, the U.S. has experienced a succession of BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.5, BQ.1, and XBB.1.5—although these variants received less attention than the original. Vaccine manufacturers monitor these variants to keep COVID shots up to date, but the World Health Organization has not assigned them new Greek letters.
If BA.2.86 continues to circulate, it may acquire mutations that provide it with new advantages. For example, XBB.1.5, which gained dominance earlier this year, underwent mutation-based improvements. Initially, XBB.1.5 was not a successful variant as its spike protein had weak binding to human cell receptors. However, it acquired an additional mutation that compensated for the weak binding, leading to its later dominance. Descendants of BA.2.86 could potentially become more transmissible than they currently appear.
The third scenario is that BA.2.86 diminishes and disappears. Scientists now believe that highly mutated variants like BA.2.86 are likely products of chronic infections in immunocompromised individuals. In these cases, the virus remains in the body for extended periods, constantly evolving to evade the immune system. Some of these mutations may make the spike protein less recognizable to antibodies. However, these same mutations could also reduce the spike protein’s functionality, thereby limiting the virus’s transmission between individuals.
Variants similar to BA.2.86 have been identified over the past few years, often in isolated cases or specific regions. BA.2.86 has been found multiple times in different locations, but it remains uncertain if it can surpass existing variants. To do so, BA.2.86 needs to evade antibodies while maintaining its inherent transmissibility. Otherwise, the variant might sporadically appear but fail to gain significant traction. Essentially, the BA.2.86 situation would remain where it is now.
The upcoming weeks will determine which of these scenarios will unfold. If the number of BA.2.86 cases starts to increase significantly, it will demand greater attention. However, if the variant’s spread does not dramatically escalate each week, the likelihood of BA.2.86 becoming a significant concern diminishes.
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