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Watch this map animation that shows the fire radiative power of wildfires across the northern hemisphere since April. The animation highlights a concerning trend – extreme wildfires are becoming more destructive in their traditional zones, like Greece, Portugal, Spain, and France, and are predicted to increase in areas such as Germany and Poland.
Climate scientists have observed that wildfires in these regions are growing in intensity and becoming harder to control. Recent wildfires, including the largest ever recorded in the EU in Greece, devastating fires in Maui, Hawaii, and massive fires across Canada and north Africa, serve as evidence of this trend. Moreover, previously unaffected areas like the Arctic and rainforests could also face more frequent and difficult-to-suppress fires in the future.
Chantelle Burton, a senior climate scientist at the UK Met Office, explains that wildfires are now burning longer and hotter in their traditional regions and also flaring up unexpectedly in areas that were not typically prone to fires, such as the Arctic, peatlands, and rainforests. These ecosystems are not well-adapted to fire, making the impacts of wildfires even more severe.
Global warming, exacerbated by climate change, plays a significant role in fueling wildfires. Night-time heatwaves and increasingly dry conditions create more favorable conditions for wildfires to ignite and spread rapidly. The Copernicus agency reports that global wildfire emissions in 2023 have already reached the third-worst on record, with Canadian wildfires alone accounting for 27% of the global total. The UN Environment Programme estimates that extreme wildfires could increase globally by up to 50% by 2100.
In order to understand why wildfires occur, scientists explain that they typically thrive in areas with abundant vegetation, like forests, grasslands, and savannahs. However, with rising temperatures and decreased rainfall, vegetation becomes drier, creating excess fuel for fires. Factors such as wind speed and humidity also influence the spread of wildfires. Changes in vegetation patterns and increasingly dry conditions around the world contribute to longer fire seasons.
The highest recorded emissions from wildfires occurred in 2003 when nearly 2,500 million tonnes of carbon were released into the atmosphere. That year, like 2023, witnessed record temperatures in regions like the UK and Portugal and led to 70,000 heat exposure-related deaths in Europe. While high temperatures alone don’t cause wildfires, climate change aggravates the conditions that lead to their outbreak.
Mitigating climate change is important, but it alone cannot eliminate wildfires. Scientists emphasize the need for proactive land management and public awareness to prepare for high fire seasons. Land managers should be prepared, and the public should be educated to avoid activities like barbecuing in natural areas during heatwaves.
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