In recent weeks, Niger experienced a military coup, resulting in the overthrow of the government, the arrest of the elected president, and the seizure of power by armed troops. Supporters of the coup gathered in the capital city, Niamey, waving Russian flags and denouncing the West and France in particular. This coup has raised concerns in Western countries, as it marks the latest instance of coups occurring throughout the Sahel region since 2020. The Sahel is a strategically important area in Africa, and Niger was seen as a bastion of stability against growing jihadism in the region. However, with the coup, the stability and security provided by the United States and France are now at risk.
Many people may not think much about Niger, but the events of this summer offer a clear lesson: Pro-Russian soldiers have overthrown a pro-Western government, resembling a narrative from the Cold War era. Niger’s status as an exporter of uranium, a vital resource for nuclear reactors, makes its struggle even more significant in the realm of geopolitics. However, it is crucial to avoid falling into the trap of simplifying complex events and fitting them into familiar geopolitical frameworks. Often, we tend to filter incidents through the lens of international grand strategy and make the story about our own interests.
The media coverage surrounding the Niger coup has already succumbed to sensationalism, with various political statements reinforcing grand geopolitical narratives. While it is likely that Russia will try to expand its influence in the aftermath of the coup, many speculations about Russia’s involvement lack substantial evidence. The protests in support of the coup, where a few hundred people waved Russian flags, do not necessarily indicate widespread Russian influence in a country of over 25 million people. Instead, it is important to consider a more nuanced perspective, understanding that the coup’s causes are likely to be multifaceted and driven by domestic dynamics.
The coup’s origin story seems to be relatively straightforward: President Mohamed Bazoum planned to dismiss General Abdourahamane Tchiani, who commanded the elite presidential guard. However, General Tchiani took preemptive action by orchestrating the coup and declaring himself the leader of the new military junta, known as the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. Such coups often arise from factional rivalries within the military and the ambitions of self-serving individuals.
General Tchiani likely did not anticipate the strong opposition he would face following the coup. International actors, including Russia, have condemned the coup, while the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has taken a firm stance against it, even threatening military intervention. These reactions may simply be driven by self-preservation concerns among regional leaders, as they fear being targeted by coups themselves.
While the coup’s origins may not lie solely in great-power competition, its consequences can have significant international ramifications. The security situation in the Sahel is deteriorating due to rising extremism, and the military regimes that have assumed power in recent years have struggled to address the issue effectively. Additionally, the coup could potentially disrupt Europe’s uranium supplies, as France heavily relies on Niger for nuclear energy. The coup may also impact migration routes through Niger, which the European Union sought to control in recent years.
If the junta remains in power, it is likely to align itself with Russia and distance itself from France. However, Niger’s rulers may soon realize that Russia does not have the financial resources to sustain long-term support for their country. Russia can afford to pay for mercenaries and bribe officials, but it cannot provide for the basic needs of Niger’s impoverished population, where the GDP per capita is less than $600 per year.
Ultimately, the ordinary people of Niger will suffer the most as military figures turned politicians enrich themselves. While geopolitical aspects may dominate the narrative, it is vital not to overlook the human suffering and distress experienced by millions of vulnerable individuals.
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