The Republican presidential primary for 2024 can be considered finished, with January 7, 2021, marking the earliest point of closure. On this day, most Republican politicians rallied behind Donald Trump after the insurrection. The next possible date was February 13 of the same year, when the majority of Senate Republicans voted in favor of Trump’s acquittal in his second impeachment trial, clearing the way for him to run for office. Shielded from immediate political consequences, Trump was bound to make his third attempt for the Republican nomination. With a year left until the Republican convention, he is the likely nominee and the popular choice among most Republican voters. No other candidate stands a chance.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows that 54 percent of Republicans nationwide support Trump for the 2024 nomination. The next most popular candidate, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, only receives 17 percent support. The remaining candidates have minor support, ranging from 2-3 percent. Even if all the candidates other than DeSantis dropped out and their votes went to him, Trump would still win with a significant margin.
Trump’s lead cannot be attributed to a crowded field, as even if DeSantis had a flawless campaign, he would struggle to compete against Trump’s strong hold on the Republican Party. Trump’s leadership has gone largely uncontested by both his rivals and the wider Republican establishment. This is evident in their decision to defend him against any investigations or legal scrutiny he faces. Republican elites and conservative media have successfully convinced Republican voters that Trump is the victim of a liberal conspiracy and his “deep state” allies. They have effectively persuaded voters to give Trump another chance at the White House.
In summary, the 2024 Republican presidential primary has effectively ended with Trump as the likely nominee. He enjoys overwhelming support among Republican voters, leaving other candidates far behind. Trump’s leadership has remained unchallenged, as the Republican Party defends him against investigations and legal scrutiny. The efforts by Republican elites and conservative media have convinced Republican voters to support Trump’s bid for the presidency once again.
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