For over a year, there has been a silent question among American officials: Could Russia’s failed invasion of Ukraine ultimately lead to the downfall of President Vladimir V. Putin? This weekend, that question felt closer to reality, albeit for a brief moment. The short-lived uprising revealed that Putin’s grip on power is more fragile than ever before.
The aftermath of the rebellion presents both opportunities and dangers for President Biden and American policymakers. While the disarray in Russia could weaken their military efforts in Ukraine and discourage further instigation in places like Syria, there is also concern about an unpredictable and nuclear-armed Putin feeling vulnerable. Ensuring the control of nuclear facilities remains a top priority for the United States.
The recent armed standoff on the road to Moscow was the most significant power struggle in Russia since the failed coup against Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991. Unlike previous episodes, the United States had no clear preference for either side in the conflict. Therefore, President Biden wisely chose not to respond publicly, avoiding giving Putin the opportunity to claim foreign interference.
U.S. officials focused on gathering intelligence to understand the situation. They were particularly concerned about Russia’s nuclear arsenal but detected no changes in its disposition. Efforts were made to prevent spillover violence and disorder, as the United States has limited capacity to influence events in Russia.
The events in Russia serve as evidence of Putin’s weakening position. Yevgeny Prigozhin, once a key ally of Putin, publicly undermined his rationale for the war in Ukraine. Putin’s comparison of the situation to the collapse of the czarist government in 1917 further emphasized his diminishing control. By making a deal with Prigozhin after threatening to crush him, Putin illustrated his diminishing monopoly over the use of force in Russia.
However, even if Putin manages to hold onto power, there are concerns that he may become more erratic and resort to riskier behavior. The ripple in his perceived invincibility will be exploited from various angles. It is crucial for the United States and its allies to support Ukraine while preparing for all possible scenarios, including the fall of the Putin regime and its replacement by a more aggressive faction.
As for Ukraine, the internal strife in Russia provided some relief as its counteroffensive regained momentum. The Wagner Group, led by Prigozhin, had been a formidable force, but with its leader’s apparent exile and troops being absorbed by the Russian Defense Ministry, it may no longer pose the same threat.
Nevertheless, American officials anticipate that the discord will undermine Russian troops’ confidence in the war and their leadership. Prigozhin, despite his setback, is unlikely to fade away. He still holds influence and has more cards to play. The Prigozhin revolt may signify the beginning of the end for the war and Putin’s tenure, even with the deal that halted the march on Moscow.
In conclusion, the recent events in Russia have exposed Putin’s vulnerability and raised questions about his future in power. While there are potential advantages for the United States, cautiousness is necessary to prevent further escalation or unintended consequences.
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