Putin: Russia’s Deployment of Sarmat Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles Will Give the World Pause for Thought in Combat Situations

Russia’s Roscosmos space agency announced on Friday that it has deployed the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for combat duty. These missiles, also known as “Satan II,” were first introduced by President Vladimir Putin in 2018 and are meant to replace the R-36 ICBMs called Satan by NATO. The Sarmat system is capable of carrying 10 or more nuclear warheads, positioning it as a strategic weapon intended to give Russia the ability to deter potential threats. Putin’s aim is to send a strong message to the United States and NATO that the nuclear option in Ukraine is still on the table.

According to Rebekah Koffler, president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting and a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer, Putin wants to make it known that Russia’s nuclear forces remain a viable fallback option in case the US and NATO decide to intervene on behalf of Ukraine. The Sarmat missiles are reserved for strategic targets, especially the United States. However, Koffler explains that Russia would not launch a kinetic attack on US soil unless it detected signs of an impending attack from the US. Therefore, the deployment of the Sarmat system is primarily for deterrence purposes.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin stated that Sarmat would ensure Russia’s security from external threats and make those who try to threaten the country think twice. Koffler points out that Russian media has published translated articles claiming that Sarmat could destroy London in just six minutes. This messaging appears to be directed at the UK, a staunch supporter of Ukraine. However, Koffler is confident that Putin would not attack London or any NATO country unless there was clear evidence of an imminent NATO attack on Russia.

The fear of unintended escalation is a major concern for Koffler and other national security professionals. It refers to the potential for a conflict to spiral out of control due to a flawed assessment by intelligence services, leading to a kinetic strike being authorized mistakenly. The risk of such a conflict escalating to a nuclear level is particularly high given Russia’s conventional inferiority compared to NATO. Nuclear weapons have always been the centerpiece of Russia’s war-fighting doctrine, and the longer the conflict between Russia and Ukraine persists, the greater the risk of a direct war between Russia and the US.

Koffler believes that Putin is aware of the fear that the Biden Administration has of a war with Russia, which is why he emphasizes the nuclear card. This puts the US in a conundrum, as it is wary of provoking a conflict with Russia but also concerned about the potential consequences of not doing enough to deter aggression.

While the Russian reports of the Sarmat deployment have not been officially confirmed by the White House National Security Council, the situation undoubtedly raises tensions and underscores the ongoing risks associated with the conflict in Ukraine.

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