Guatemala City witnessed a momentous event on Sunday as an outsider to the country’s power structure, Bernardo Arévalo, was elected as the next president. This election result serves as a strong rebuke to the ruling elite, who have faced numerous allegations of corruption. Despite the preliminary results showing a potential landslide victory for Arévalo, there are concerns about whether he will be allowed to assume power. The Attorney General’s Office is attempting to suspend his party’s legal status, casting doubt on his ability to govern.
With all votes counted, the preliminary results indicate that Arévalo secured 58% of the vote, while former first lady Sandra Torres, in her third attempt at the presidency, garnered 37%. However, the official results are still pending certification.
In response to his victory, Arévalo stated that there is an ongoing political persecution orchestrated by corrupt institutions, prosecutors, and judges. He hopes that his resounding triumph will demonstrate that attempts to disrupt the electoral process will not be tolerated. Arévalo revealed that outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei congratulated him and expressed a commitment to facilitating a smooth transition once the results are certified.
However, Guatemalans remain wary, as just before the first round of voting results were certified, the Attorney General’s Office launched an investigation into the signatures gathered by Arévalo’s party, the Seed Movement, to register several years ago. The party’s legal status was briefly suspended by a judge before a higher court intervened.
Eduardo Núñez, the Guatemala resident Senior Director for the National Democratic Institute, believes that the polarization of the country and the judicialization of the electoral process will continue and intensify in the days ahead. He highlights three significant moments to watch: the public positions taken by Arévalo’s Seed Movement and Torres’ National Unity of Hope party regarding the results; the end of Guatemala’s electoral process on October 31, when the Seed Movement’s legal protection expires and it risks being cancelled; and January 14, when President Giammattei is constitutionally obligated to leave office.
The big question is how the Guatemalan people will respond if the government takes actions that seem to contradict the will of the voters. Supporters of Arévalo, like Alec Escobar, have vowed to defend the country’s democracy, just as they did during the first round of voting.
Meanwhile, Edmond Mulet, a former Guatemalan diplomat and president of Congress, who competed in the first round of the election as the presidential candidate for the Cabal party, emphasizes that Guatemala has a different solution to political unrest: migration. He believes that the country’s power structure will employ legal tools to create confusion and doubt, hoping to prevent a massive united public reaction. Mulet recalls that in 2015, massive street protests led to the resignation of President Otto Pérez Molina, who was embroiled in a corruption scandal. However, Mulet acknowledges that the current situation is more complex and that Guatemalans may opt for migration over protest.
Mulet presents two possible scenarios in the coming weeks and months. In one scenario, the Seed Movement is cancelled, and Arévalo assumes the presidency without a party. This would severely hamper his party’s representation in Congress, rendering them unable to hold leadership positions or lead committees. Furthermore, Arévalo would face immediate attempts from Congress to remove him from office and would struggle to pass any legislation.
In the other scenario, the Attorney General’s Office successfully cancels the legal status of the Seed Movement. They argue that the party’s improper registration nullifies everything that followed, including Arévalo’s nomination. Consequently, he would be barred from assuming the presidency.
If Giammattei leaves office on January 14 without a president-elect or vice president-elect to succeed him, the president of Congress, likely an ally of Giammattei, would assume power temporarily. The president of Congress would present a list of three names, potentially including their own, to Congress, and lawmakers would choose a temporary president for the nation. The legal implications of this unprecedented situation are unclear, as it is unknown whether the temporary president would complete Arévalo’s full term or if a new election would be called sooner.
Before the official announcement of the election results, Mulet speculated that a significant margin of victory for Arévalo could make his opponents think twice about their next steps. He emphasized that the people of Guatemala have been tested, and their reaction remains uncertain.
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