The circumstances surrounding the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, have left the Russian people skeptical. Western survey groups investigating Russian public opinion and the Kremlin’s influence on the narrative have observed this skepticism. Prigozhin’s death in a plane crash, after his failed armed rebellion against President Putin, was not unexpected. However, many details surrounding the crash on August 23 remain unclear, leaving Russians uncertain about what truly happened. President Biden has suggested that Putin may be responsible for Prigozhin’s death, and US officials suspect that a planned explosion caused the plane to crash, resulting in the deaths of all ten individuals on board.
Various narratives have emerged in social media and Russian news articles, ranging from viewing the crash as an accident to considering it a deliberate attack. The Kremlin has played a significant role in shaping these narratives, according to Jonathan Teubner, CEO and founder of FilterLabs.AI. He noted that there was a concerted effort, typically seen in Kremlin information operations, to push the idea that the crash was an accident. However, these efforts quickly fade and blend into a general mix of theories.
Analysis from FilterLabs.AI reveals that blaming Ukraine, which Russia invaded in February 2022, is the dominant theory in Russian discourse. Despite this, Putin and other Russian officials have refrained from directly accusing Ukraine. Teubner suggests that Putin has an interest in avoiding signaling that Ukraine could carry out successful assassinations on Russian soil, given Prigozhin’s involvement in numerous killings in Ukraine.
Other theories circulating in Russia include a bomb causing the plane crash, Prigozhin faking his own death, an accidental crash, blaming competing groups in African countries where Wagner forces operate, or attributing his death to “the West.”
However, a survey conducted by Russia Watcher at Princeton University shows that among a sample of 2,000 respondents, the dominant response was uncertainty. Many respondents either did not know or preferred not to answer the question. The second most popular answer was that Prigozhin is not actually dead. Other responses included operator error or aircraft malfunction, the plane being shot down by Russian air defenses, foreign sabotage, or a Ukrainian terrorist attack. Only a small percentage believed that a Russian actor orchestrated the sabotage.
FilterLabs.AI aims to gain a better understanding of the Russian information-operation machine through its monitoring of Russian public opinion. Teubner notes that the West has underestimated their capabilities since the 2016 US election and emphasizes the need to assess their true power and influence.
The truth behind Prigozhin’s death may remain unknown to the public. The Kremlin has denied any involvement, and Russia’s Investigative Committee is currently investigating the crash. The Kremlin has rejected the offer of an international investigation, and it will be interesting to see how Prigozhin’s role is discussed in the future, particularly to avoid criticism of the Russian military or the war in Ukraine.
In conclusion, there is widespread skepticism and uncertainty among the Russian people regarding Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death. The Kremlin has influenced various narratives about the plane crash, but the exact circumstances remain a mystery. Russia is divided on the possible explanations, with blaming Ukraine being the most prominent theory. Further investigation is needed to uncover the truth, but it remains to be seen if it will be revealed.
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