Nigeriens woke up on Tuesday to a growing sense of uncertainty regarding the potential military intervention by a regional bloc to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum. It has been almost two weeks since mutinous soldiers ousted the democratically elected leader, and the West African regional bloc ECOWAS had set a deadline for the soldiers to release and reinstall Bazoum, threatening the use of force if they failed to do so. Discussions involving ECOWAS, the United Nations, and the African Union were scheduled to take place in Niamey, the capital city, with foreign officials joining the talks. However, the outcome of these talks remains unclear.
The coup leaders in Niger recently met with acting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, who revealed that they refused to allow her to meet with Bazoum, who she claimed is under “virtual house arrest.” According to Nuland, the mutinous officers showed no interest in her pleas to engage in negotiations and restore constitutional rule. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Niger has been an important partner for the United States and European countries in combating jihadi violence in the Sahel region.
Coup d’états have become frequent in the region, with neighboring countries like Mali and Burkina Faso experiencing multiple coup attempts. ECOWAS has had limited success in preventing such incidents. However, the regional bloc’s strong response to the situation in Niger, including economic and travel sanctions and the threat of military force, reflects a desire for a different approach. Nevertheless, the junta in Niger seems unwilling to engage in dialogues, intensifying the challenges faced by ECOWAS and other parties involved.
With the current window for military intervention closing, analysts and diplomats are searching for alternative solutions. The tough rhetoric from regional and international actors may stem from their regret over how they handled previous coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea. This situation also presents a dilemma for the United States and France, as they must decide whether to collaborate with the junta leaders on counterterrorism efforts or risk losing ground to jihadist groups and potentially Russia.
The ruling military in Niger, led by Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, has been capitalizing on the population’s grievances towards France, its former colonial ruler, and has sought assistance from the Russian mercenary group, Wagner. Wagner is already present in several African countries, including Mali, and has faced accusations of human rights abuses. As tensions persist, pro-junta rallies, anti-foreign sentiment, and the display of Russian flags have become commonplace in Niamey.
While the region grapples with finding a way forward, jihadist groups in Niger are exploiting the chaos and the reduced presence of foreign forces due to the suspension of military operations. This has allowed them greater freedom of movement. The French military, which had been conducting operations in collaboration with the Nigerien military in the tri-border area, has put its operations on hold. This situation has been met with enthusiasm from jihadis in the region, who view it as an opportunity for their own advancement.
As the complexities of the situation continue to unfold, the people of Niger are left in a tense state of uncertainty. The coup is seen by some as a consequence of political and social policy choices rather than solely the military’s doing. In the meantime, it remains to be seen how ECOWAS and other stakeholders will navigate this crisis and find a resolution that restores stability and democracy to Niger.
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