Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently attended a meeting in Athens, Greece, which has further fueled anticipation and rumors surrounding the potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Despite never forming formal ties, there has been growing cooperation between the two countries in recent years. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel share a common threat perception of Iran, leading to increased coordination and intelligence sharing. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has allowed Israeli airlines to fly over its territory and has sought help from Israeli cybersecurity firms.
The rise of non-state actors and the perceived threat of political Islamists have also created a sense of shared interests between the Gulf states and Israel. Most recently, it was reported that Riyadh is offering to restart its funding of the Palestinian Authority in exchange for its leader Mahmoud Abbas’ support for open relations with Israel. If a deal is reached, it could significantly reshape the geopolitics of the Middle East.
However, there are major barriers to official normalization. One key obstacle is the issue of Palestinian statehood, which Saudi Arabia holds dear due to its role in the Muslim world. Israel’s current right-wing government is unlikely to make major concessions to the Palestinians. Another challenge is Saudi Arabia’s demands of the U.S., including security guarantees and support for its civilian nuclear program. These demands may face resistance from members of Congress who want less American involvement in foreign affairs. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s refusal to abide by the U.S. government’s “gold standard” of civilian nuclear partnerships complicates any potential agreement.
Time is also a factor in the normalization process. With the Biden administration focused on its re-election campaign, there is limited time to hash out a deal. Riyadh may purposely prolong negotiations to pressure the administration for more concessions. Alternatively, a deal could be pursued by the next administration if Biden loses the election.
Normalization with Israel would be a strategic breakthrough for Saudi Arabia, providing security and technological benefits. However, both countries must overcome domestic political barriers to achieve a full-scale breakthrough. The future of Saudi-Israeli relations remains uncertain, but efforts to find a path towards normalization are likely to continue.
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