Poll: RFK Jr.’s Independent Run Could Impact Trump More Than Biden, According to New Survey
By Katelyn Caralle, U.S. Political Reporter
Published: 21:19 BST, October 3, 2023 | Updated: 21:19 BST, October 3, 2023
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An intriguing new poll suggests that if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. decides to run for the presidency in 2024 as an independent candidate, he could actually be more of a threat to Republicans than Democrats. Kennedy, a longshot Democratic presidential candidate, has been teasing a major announcement on October 9, with rumors swirling that he may pursue an independent bid instead of challenging President Joe Biden in the primary. This new development comes as Republicans have expressed support for some of Kennedy’s key stances, particularly his skepticism towards the COVID-19 vaccine and his plans to address the southern border crisis.
While there isn’t solid polling data to gauge Kennedy’s chances as a third-party candidate, a recent Quinnipiac University survey published this week reveals that Republican voters hold a much more favorable opinion of him compared to their Democratic counterparts. In fact, Republicans view Kennedy favorably by a margin of 30 points, while Democrats have a 43-point gap in their unfavorable view of him. Of Republicans surveyed, 48 percent have a positive view of RFK Jr., whereas only 14 percent of Democrats feel the same way. On the other hand, 18 percent of GOP voters hold an unfavorable opinion of him, which contrasts with a significant 57 percent of Democratic voters who view him negatively. Independent voters are more evenly divided, with 36 percent having a favorable view of Kennedy and 37 percent having an unfavorable view.
What initially seemed like a longshot bid that may drain some votes from Biden in the primary election is now shaping up to be a spoiler that could cause headaches for Republicans in the general election next November. Ironically, some Republican voters find Kennedy more favorable than other GOP presidential candidates running against clear frontrunner Donald Trump. Both biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Vice President Mike Pence are less popular among Republicans than RFK Jr. On the Democratic side, current candidates are rated similarly in favorability to Republican candidates such as former South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Only Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis outpace Kennedy in terms of favorability among right-leaning voters.
Democrat voters have never been particularly fond of Kennedy and his White House aspirations, but the distaste has intensified in recent months. In mid-June, RFK Jr. had a net unfavorability rating of just 14 points among left-leaning voters, but this grew to 23 points underwater later that same month. By July, the favorability gap had widened to 26 points in the negative, and in August, it reached 31 points underwater. The latest Quinnipiac poll reveals that Kennedy is now 43 points behind in favorability among Democrats.
Given his relative obscurity as a candidate, many voters from across the political spectrum admit they don’t know enough about RFK Jr. to form a solid opinion regarding his likability. This sentiment is shared by 33 percent of Republicans, 28 percent of Democrats, and 26 percent of independent voters.
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