In Poland, next month’s parliamentary elections could be the opposition’s final opportunity to halt the country’s descent into autocracy. Once considered a success story for post-communist transition to democracy, Poland now follows Hungary’s path after far-right populists rose to power in the 2010s.
The significance of Poland in Central and Eastern Europe cannot be overstated. It is the largest country in the European Union within this region and occupies a geopolitically strategic location, bordering Ukraine, Belarus, the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, and the Baltic Sea. Additionally, Poland boasts a stronger military than neighboring Germany and is projected to surpass Britain’s GDP per capita by the end of the decade.
Law and Justice, the populist party, gained a majority in Poland’s parliament and secured the largely ceremonial presidency in 2015. Led by Jarosław Kaczyński, who wields the actual power in the country, Law and Justice quickly implemented a playbook similar to Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán.
The erosion of judicial independence has been a key focus for Law and Justice. Several sitting justices on the Supreme Court were forcibly retired and replaced with loyalists, who now hold a majority. The party also granted government officials the authority to assign judges to specific cases. Additionally, Law and Justice filled a newly reformed Constitutional Tribunal, responsible for judicial review, with political appointees who have the ability to suspend judges that displease the government.
Media independence has also been compromised, with public broadcasting channels becoming propaganda networks and senior officials receiving overly positive coverage. Opposition figures are regularly smeared, accused of being puppets of Germany or Russia, or labeled as criminals, perverts, and pedophiles.
The coming weeks are a critical period for Polish democracy. If Law and Justice manages to win reelection, further democratic decline is likely unavoidable. However, despite compromised rule of law and the ability for the opposition to compete in elections, there is still hope. Independent television stations, newspapers, and periodicals continue to scrutinize the government’s actions. The opposition holds influence in the upper chamber and dominates local and regional governments.
The parliamentary elections on October 15 carry significant weight. If Law and Justice secures a third mandate, the negative trends of the past eight years will likely accelerate. Alternatively, if the opposition performs well enough to form the next government, Poland can regain its path towards a true democracy. However, it remains uncertain whether democratic forces can successfully remove authoritarian populists from power through the ballot box, as seen in the United States and Brazil in recent years.
Civic Platform, once seen as Poland’s natural governing party, struggled to expand its support beyond major cities and affluent areas of the country. Law and Justice took advantage of this and won the 2015 election. However, Civic Platform’s recent recovery, led by returning leader Donald Tusk, has stalled, leaving it behind Law and Justice in the polls. If neither party secures a majority, the upstart movement, Confederation, could potentially play a crucial role in the outcome. Confederation appeals to voters frustrated with the political establishment, offering a radical break from the past and emphasizing lower taxes. However, its appeal also lies in its harsh rhetoric towards ethnic and religious minorities.
The outcome of the election may also depend on smaller opposition movements and Poland’s electoral system. The high electoral threshold makes it challenging to predict which parties will be represented in Parliament. If the left or a new centrist coalition fails to clear the threshold, votes will be redistributed, potentially aiding Law and Justice in securing a majority.
Ultimately, the fate of Polish democracy hangs in the balance. The parliamentary elections will determine whether the country continues its slide towards autocracy or renews its commitment to sustaining genuine democracy.
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