WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland is on the brink of a crucial election that has garnered significant anticipation and is being touted as the most important since the 1989 vote that brought an end to communism. This election holds the fate of Poland’s democracy, LGBTQ+ rights, and abortion laws, as well as its foreign alliances as a key NATO ally of Ukraine.
Political analysts argue that the election cannot be truly fair due to the eight-year reign of a conservative nationalist party that has systematically eroded checks and balances, gaining control over state institutions such as the courts, public media, and the electoral process itself.
Opponents of the ruling Law and Justice party fear that the upcoming election might be their last opportunity to protect the constitutional system that was hard-won through the efforts of numerous Poles, including former President Lech Walesa and the millions who supported the Solidarity movement.
“The future of Poland as a nation of liberal democracy, a system that has been the bedrock of Polish success for the last three decades, hangs in the balance with this election,” remarked Boguslaw Chrabota, editor of the Rzeczpospolita newspaper, in an impassioned editorial.
On the other hand, supporters of the ruling party are concerned that if Law and Justice loses power, the opposition will steer the country in a more liberal direction, potentially legalizing abortion and civil unions for same-sex couples.
The current abortion laws in Poland allow women to terminate pregnancies only in cases of rape, incest, or when there is a threat to their life or health.
“I fear waking up after the election to a significant change where abortion and LGBT issues are promoted,” expressed Bozena Zych, a civil servant, as she exited a Catholic church located in a trendy part of Warsaw known for its gay-friendly establishments.
Zych attended the Church of the Holiest Savior with a friend to pray for Law and Justice’s victory in securing a third consecutive term. Churches, including the revered Jasna Gora shrine in Czestochowa, have organized prayers for candidates who uphold Christian values.
The supporters of a more liberal Poland have also mobilized, organizing two massive marches this year. Some individuals interviewed by The Associated Press in recent days became visibly emotional or teary-eyed when discussing what they perceive as corruption, a decline in democracy, propaganda, and deep divisions within Polish society ever since Law and Justice came to power in 2015.
“The situation in Poland is nothing short of a nightmare,” asserted Maryla Kowalewska, a 75-year-old citizen. “Let’s hope for a complete transformation in this country.”
Recent polls indicate that Law and Justice enjoys more support than any other individual party but falls short of securing a majority in Parliament, thus requiring support from a far-right party, Confederation, which holds a hostile stance towards Ukraine.
The polls also suggest that a coalition of opposition groups, including Civic Coalition, Third Way, and New Left, could collectively gain a majority of parliamentary seats. The largest opposition group is the centrist Civic Coalition, led by former Polish Prime Minister and former President of the European Union, Donald Tusk.
Tusk has pledged to reinstate the rule of law and rebuild relations with the EU, which have significantly strained during Law and Justice’s tenure. The EU is currently withholding billions of euros in COVID-19 recovery funds from Poland, citing violations of the rule of law.
Small shifts in favor of or against smaller parties could have a significant impact on the potential coalitions that may form after election day.
“The two sides perceive this election as high-stakes, with both sides displaying determination and energy. Emotions are running high, despite an uneven playing field,” remarked Jacek Kucharczyk, President of the Warsaw-based think tank, the Institute of Public Affairs.
Kucharczyk attributed the imbalance to Law and Justice’s control over state media, financed through taxpayer money, which they use to relentlessly attack their opponents. However, other factors such as political control over the electoral administration and the Supreme Court chamber responsible for validating the election could also influence the outcome.
With immense interest in the election, over 600,000 Poles living abroad have registered to vote, three times more than in 2015, according to the Foreign Ministry.
The ministry also swiftly dismissed its spokesperson, Lukasz Jasina, for making a statement suggesting that not all polling stations would be able to count all the votes before the deadline, potentially invalidating them. The ministry clarified late on Friday that it was fully prepared to conduct the vote abroad and fired Jasina for spreading false information.
State ownership is also prevalent in the Polish economy, and the ruling party has established a system of patronage by offering thousands of jobs and contracts to loyalists.
Wojciech Przybylski, the editor-in-chief of Visegrad Insight, a policy journal focused on Central Europe, warned that this practice undermines the ability of the middle class to progress socially without political connections. He further cautioned that this could pose a threat to the foundations of Poland’s economic success since the fall of communism. Currently, Poland is the EU’s sixth-largest economy.
Law and Justice’s nationalist policies have also strained Poland’s relationships with key allies. While Poland has been a steadfast ally of neighboring Ukraine, tensions have surfaced due to the entry of Ukrainian grain into the Polish market.
In light of these increasing tensions and the growing popularity of the Confederation party, Poland’s Prime Minister declared that his country would no longer send weapons to Kyiv.
“They have quarreled with everyone — the EU, NATO, everyone,” criticized Ludmila, a 68-year-old opponent of Law and Justice who declined to provide her last name due to concerns about the country’s authoritarian direction. “This is unacceptable. It cannot continue like this.”
She concluded by saying, “Poland will be as isolated as it was in 1939 when World War II broke out.”
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