Thailand’s Pita Limjaroenrat, a potential candidate for the country’s prime minister position, may have another opportunity next week. However, his path to power is uncertain, especially if the leader of the Move Forward Party, which opposes the law prohibiting criticism of the monarchy, does not change his stance.
In the first parliamentary vote on Thursday, Limjaroenrat fell short of the majority needed, lacking 51 votes from the bicameral National Assembly. While he gained 311 votes from his coalition, he only received 13 votes from the Senate, which is dominated by conservative royalists.
This outcome highlights the mistrust of Limjaroenrat and his party’s anti-establishment agenda among royalist senators. It also raises concerns about prolonged political turmoil in Thailand’s economy.
Moody’s Investors Service analyst, Grace Lim, warns that if there is a delay in forming a new government or if the future prime minister lacks popular support, it could lead to large-scale protests. These tensions could undermine Thailand’s institutional frameworks, affecting macroeconomic policies and long-term issues.
Another vote is scheduled for Wednesday, where Limjaroenrat, a Harvard Kennedy School alumni, could run again if nominated. Alternatively, the second-largest party in the coalition, Pheu Thai, may put forth its own candidate. They have three options: Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of exiled ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra; former property tycoon Srettha Thavisin, or Chaikasem Nitisiri, the party’s chief of strategy.
The main point of contention between senators and the Move Forward Party is its plan to amend Article 112, known as the lèse-majesté law, which prohibits criticism of the monarchy. Move Forward denies the intention to dismantle the law entirely but wants to revise certain parts to prevent its abuse for political purposes.
The proposed amendments include reducing the maximum prison sentence from 15 years to one year for defaming the king and six months for defaming the queen, heir, or regent.
Thailand’s younger generation is disillusioned with the royalist military establishment, particularly due to the use of the lèse-majesté law against young protesters in 2020. Many of the prosecutions related to the 2020 protests were based on this law, including cases involving minors.
Limjaroenrat expressed disappointment in the senators’ voting process and plans to strategize to try to convince them to support the people’s will. Move Forward Party lawmakers also sought to bar the junta-appointed senators from participating in the subsequent vote by proposing an amendment to the junta-sponsored constitution.
The party’s reform agenda, targeting the monarchy, monopolies, and the military, resonated with younger Thais, helping them secure a majority in the elections. However, their slim majority makes their agenda vulnerable to opposition from the institutions they aim to reform.
Citi economist Nalin Chutchotitham highlights the risks associated with Limjaroenrat’s qualification for election and the constitutional court’s rulings on the party’s proposed amendments. The ongoing court case against Limjaroenrat for his ownership of shares in a defunct media company, along with the similar experiences of Future Forward party leaders in the past, raises concerns about the stability of Move Forward’s leadership.
Overall, the political situation in Thailand remains uncertain, with the prospect of further protests and challenges to the party’s reform agenda.
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