Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it approaches western Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center. This development has prompted Governor Ron DeSantis to expand his state-of-emergency declaration, and preparations are underway across the Gulf Coast. What was initially predicted to be a tropical storm has now been upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, posing a significant threat of life-threatening storm surges and dangerous winds in parts of Florida. Governor DeSantis has extended the state of emergency to include 46 counties, up from 33 on Saturday. Notable additions include Seminole, Lake, and Volusia counties. However, Orange and Osceola counties are not included. The affected counties include Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lake, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Nassau, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, and Wakulla.
President Biden has approved an emergency declaration and authorized federal assistance in response to the storm. Governor DeSantis had requested aid from the White House on Sunday night. During a briefing in Tallahassee, Governor DeSantis urged all Floridians to take the necessary precautions to stay safe. Stressing the importance of not solely focusing on the projected path, he highlighted how forecasts for Hurricane Ian last year were constantly changing and shifted further south, resulting in severe damage to the Gulf Coast. He emphasized the need for proactive preparations by stating, “You have time today and know what you need to do.”
According to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. advisory, Tropical Storm Idalia currently has sustained winds of 65 mph with higher gusts. It is located approximately 80 miles south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba and is moving north at 8 mph. The storm’s tropical-storm-force winds reach out 105 miles from its center. The advisory states that Idalia is expected to increase in speed and turn north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday before reaching the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. The storm is projected to become a hurricane later in the day and evolve into a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday. It is expected to pass over Cuba tonight and head into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday. The forecast indicates that it will intensify with sustained winds of 115 mph and gusts up to 140 mph by 2 a.m. Wednesday, positioned off the coast of Florida north of Tampa. The projected path has a cone of uncertainty that extends from Tampa north to Tallahassee.
As preparations intensify, Pasco County on Florida’s west coast has already issued a mandatory evacuation order for certain residents, such as those in manufactured homes, mobile homes, RVs, or low-lying and flood-prone areas. The storm has prompted various warnings and watches. The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio is under a hurricane warning, as are areas from the middle of Longboat Key to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and various areas in Florida and Cuba, including Dry Tortugas, Chokoloskee, and parts of Longboat Key. A hurricane watch is in place from Englewood to the middle of Longboat Key and from west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass. Additionally, a tropical storm watch is in effect from the lower Florida Keys to Sebastian Inlet. A storm surge warning is also in effect for areas from Englewood to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay. Notably, storm surge was the main factor behind the catastrophic effects of Hurricane Ian last year.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that storm surge along Florida’s Gulf Coast could be 7-11 feet above normal levels from the Aucilla River near Tallahassee to Chassahowitzka in Citrus County. Additionally, areas from Chassahowitzka to the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs may experience surges 6-9 feet higher, while the Anclote River to Longboat Key region may face surges of 4-7 feet. Smaller storm surges are anticipated in Southwest Florida, the Florida Keys, and the broader Florida Panhandle region. The forecast warns that rising waters due to storm surge combined with high tide may lead to flooding in typically dry coastal areas. Although Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to move relatively quickly across the state, rainfall totals could still reach 4-8 inches and possibly up to 12 inches in certain parts of Florida’s west coast, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas. This heavy rainfall could cause urban and flash flooding.
John Pendergrast, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, shared that Central Florida will begin experiencing the effects of Tropical Storm Idalia on Tuesday and Wednesday. This includes the threat of heavy rain, gusty conditions with possible tropical storm-force winds between 35 to 45 miles per hour, and squalls, particularly on Wednesday. Pendergrast also mentioned the possibility of tornadoes in the region, stating that similar systems passing west of Central Florida have previously triggered tornadoes. As a result, residents in Central Florida should start preparing for the hurricane, securing any loose items outside their homes, and being ready for potential local floods. Pendergrast emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant, as the track and intensity of the storm can change unexpectedly. He noted, “Small deviations on the track could bring higher effects to the area, so we’re not firmly set on the track for the hurricane yet or the intensity.”
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