Russia’s potential options for dealing with the Wagner Group are unlikely to yield positive outcomes.
In a recent address to the nation, President Putin offered Wagner fighters who did not participate in the failed coup attempt the opportunity to sign a contract with the Russian military under the command of the Ministry of Defense. However, this attempt to incorporate Wagner mercenaries into the Russian Ministry of Defense was a major factor that contributed to the mutiny attempt led by Mr. Prigozhin. Consequently, it is unlikely to be a popular choice among Wagner’s troops.
Even if the Wagner fighters decide to join Russian military units in large numbers, integrating them will pose challenges. The Wagner Group already has a notorious reputation for brutality and is alleged to have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in various regions. They have also faced credible accusations of torture, kidnapping, and the execution of civilians.
Another option for President Putin is to maintain Wagner’s current overseas operations and appoint a new leader to replace Mr. Prigozhin. This approach would uphold Moscow’s foreign policy agenda and reassure its client states that Russia remains a trustworthy partner. The Wagner Group has an extensive presence in Africa, with ongoing activities in countries such as Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Kenya. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, revealed that Russian “instructors” would continue to work in Mali and the Central African Republic even after the failed uprising. Russian officials have been dispatched to various locations where Wagner operates, including Syria and Mali, to assure these governments of uninterrupted Russian assistance.
However, this approach may also face challenges depending on the extent of the division between Wagner and the Ministry of Defense. If Wagner’s midlevel commanders and soldiers remain loyal to Mr. Prigozhin, installing a new leader endorsed by the Kremlin may not be successful. Many Wagner fighters hold great respect for Mr. Prigozhin, and they may resist new leadership or significant changes in the organization’s culture.
Lastly, Russia could consider disbanding the Wagner Group and dispersing its fighters among existing private armies. Patriot, a group associated with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, is considered a significant competitor to Wagner, with reported operations in countries like Burundi, the Central African Republic, Gabon, Syria, and Yemen. The E.N.O.T. Corporation, founded by Russian nationalist Igor Mangushev, is another private military company with limited experience abroad. However, it is less influential and experienced than Wagner. Additionally, the Russian energy giant Gazprom has developed its own private army, primarily focused on protecting oil and gas infrastructure from potential attacks.
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