From the founder of the Democratic Leadership Council and author of “The New Democrats and the Return to Power,” and a longtime Republican strategist who served under President Ronald Reagan and Vice President George H.W. Bush, we have regularly debated each other on political matters. However, our shared love for our country surpasses our loyalty to our parties, and as we look ahead to the 2024 presidential election, we find ourselves in complete agreement: in order to save the American republic, former president Donald Trump must be defeated. This is why we urge the centrist political organization No Labels to abandon its efforts to nominate a third-party candidate.
We share three key points: Firstly, Trump faces similar challenges in winning the popular vote as he has in the past, if not worse, in a head-to-head general-election contest. Secondly, having a moderate independent third-party candidate on the ballot greatly increases Trump’s chances of winning re-election. And thirdly, given Trump’s intention to seek reelection even if he is convicted of crimes, we cannot simply hope that this threat will disappear.
The failed attempt of a coup by Trump and his allies after he lost the 2020 election posed the greatest threat to our democracy since the Civil War, and this threat is ongoing. Trump remains the front-runner among Republicans, and, if anything, his legal troubles seem to have only strengthened his support. Although this may change as his legal challenges mount, we cannot underestimate a wounded Trump in 2024. Four out of five of his voters in 2020 stated that they voted for him because they supported him, not simply to oppose his opponent. Given his dedicated followers, it is unlikely that his vote will significantly decrease from the 46 percent he received in 2016 and 2020.
However, dedicated Trump loyalists do not represent a majority of the electorate. This is evident from his failure to win the popular vote in both his presidential runs, where he did not exceed 47 percent support. As long as the anti-Trump vote is consolidated behind a single candidate, Trump is highly unlikely to win, as demonstrated by Joe Biden in 2020. This would likely be the case in a potential rematch between Biden and Trump in 2024.
However, the introduction of a third-party candidate alters the equation drastically. Even if this candidate only takes a small portion of the anti-Trump vote away from Biden, it significantly increases Trump’s chances of returning to the White House. This is why the efforts of No Labels pose a dangerous threat to our democracy.
In the five critical swing states that are likely to decide the 2024 election in the electoral college – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – the numbers speak for themselves. Together, they account for 73 electoral votes. Trump narrowly won all of these states in 2016, while Biden won them in 2020. Biden’s narrow margins in all five of these states were largely due to a significant anti-Trump vote. In each state, at least one in three Biden voters said they mainly voted against Trump, reaching 38 percent in Wisconsin and a staggering 45 percent in Arizona, where No Labels has already secured a spot on the 2024 ballot.
Even a slight decrease in Biden’s anti-Trump vote from 2020 puts him in a precarious position for 2024. He has no margin for error. A difference of just 44,000 votes, less than half a percent, out of over 10 million cast in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin made the difference between a Biden presidency and a tie in the electoral college that would have been decided by the House of Representatives.
Our calculations show that if a No Labels candidate had won a mere 3 percent of the popular vote in 2020, Trump would likely be sitting in the White House today. Given Biden’s current low approval rating, it is not unreasonable to assume that a No Labels candidate in 2024 could attract at least 15 percent of the anti-Trump vote away from the president. If this were to happen and Trump retained his base, he would comfortably win all five swing states, securing his return to the Oval Office.
Early polling indicates a neck-and-neck race between Biden and Trump, with Biden likely needing a significant anti-Trump vote once again. In an April Wall Street Journal poll, 11.5 percent of voters disapproved of both Biden and Trump’s handling of the presidency. Among those voters, Biden led with 54 percent compared to Trump’s 15 percent. This advantage translates to approximately 4.5 percent of the total vote, giving Biden a head start in the race. He will likely need every bit of this advantage to overcome the intensity of the pro-Trump vote.
If No Labels persists in its efforts to introduce a third-party candidate, it will almost certainly lead to Trump winning the 2024 election. We need voices from all sides to unite and say, “Not now, No Labels. For the greater good of our country, halt this third-party effort immediately.”
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