In recent weeks, there has been speculation about a potential deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which has generated excitement among Israeli and American officials. This kind of agreement has the potential to be a significant diplomatic success. The security of both Israel and the Arabian Peninsula has long been considered a vital interest for the United States, and a deal that advances these objectives by normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia should be celebrated in Washington.
However, it is crucial for policymakers, especially in Congress, to critically evaluate any deal that is announced. They must be clear about what constitutes a “win” and what does not. A deal that commits the United States to an increased or sustained presence in the region, whether in terms of troop numbers or policy focus, would be a bad deal. Additionally, any deal that is motivated by anything other than a genuine desire to normalize relations with Israel should also be viewed with caution.
A good deal would formalize the already warming relations between Israel and the Gulf states while allowing the United States to reduce its time and financial investment in the Middle East. Ideally, a deal would enable the United States to redirect its resources to other global priorities.
A comparison can be drawn to the peace deals between Israel and Egypt and Jordan. While these agreements were initially welcomed, they have not resulted in meaningful social or economic ties between the countries. The relationships rely heavily on U.S. financial aid and cooperation between military and security services. Furthermore, they have fostered a sense of entitlement among the involved parties, leading to conflicts over military aid reductions. Therefore, any agreement should aim to avoid similar pitfalls.
The Israel-United Arab Emirates relationship, established through the Abraham Accords in 2020, appears to be different. The leaders of Israel and the UAE share similar views on regional threats, and there is potential for collaboration in areas such as finance and innovation. This kind of mutually beneficial relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia should be the goal. The Gulf region is economically thriving, and the sovereign-wealth funds of the Gulf states are investing abundantly both domestically and internationally. Establishing economic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be mutually advantageous.
Nevertheless, there are concerns that the United States plans to increase its security commitments to Saudi Arabia and Israel, which is worrisome. Peace between Israel and its neighbors should allow for a reduction in U.S. military presence in the region, rather than an increase. Historically, the Pentagon has underestimated the long-term commitments it makes on behalf of the United States. For example, the 2015 Iran deal resulted in an ongoing U.S. force presence in the Gulf. The United States should prioritize the Pacific theater and not make new security commitments in the Middle East.
Despite these concerns, it is important to acknowledge the efforts of the Biden and Trump administrations in bringing Israel and Saudi Arabia closer to a significant achievement in diplomacy. The United States deserves credit for its role in these negotiations, but it must ensure that any commitments made do not hinder its broader strategic interests.
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