The military coup in Niger has disrupted Western counterterrorism efforts in West Africa, posing new challenges for the Biden administration’s fight against Islamist militants on the continent. While counterterrorism efforts have been successful in places like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, they have struggled in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region where Al Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups are gaining ground.
Niger, however, has been an exception to this trend. Thanks to the presence of French and American troops, along with a counterinsurgency strategy implemented by former President Mohamed Bazoum, terrorist attacks against civilians in Niger have decreased by 49% this year. However, the recent coup and the potential removal of Western forces, including American troops and drone bases, could jeopardize these gains.
It is important to note that Western-led military efforts are not a perfect solution to Islamist militancy in the Sahel. Despite French-led operations involving thousands of troops over the past decade, attacks have continued. However, a security vacuum in Niger could embolden militants and make it harder to identify and disrupt emerging threats.
Furthermore, the withdrawal of American forces could pave the way for Russian influence in Niger through the Wagner private military company, which already has a presence in neighboring Mali. This would be a devastating blow to Western counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel.
The stakes in this fight are rising rapidly, with tens of thousands of deaths and millions displaced over the past decade in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. The violence is spreading towards the Gulf of Guinea, with militants carrying out attacks in Togo and Benin. A weakened Niger could also lead to the spread of violence into Ivory Coast.
Niger has been a key ally in American efforts to combat Islamist militancy in the Sahel region for the past decade. However, with the coup and the potential for a loss of Western aid, the Biden administration is faced with tough choices. It could either declare a coup and cut off aid, or seek an arrangement with the junta to continue counterterrorism cooperation.
The United States has limited alternatives in the region, with no other country as centrally located or willing to accept a large American military presence. Niger is a critical partner in the region, and its importance cannot be understated.
The collapse of the democratic government in Niger raises questions about the effectiveness of the security-heavy approach taken by the United States. Some argue that a focus on supporting good governance and stronger institutions would be more effective in combating terrorism.
In conclusion, the military takeover in Niger has significant implications for Western counterterrorism efforts in West Africa. The Biden administration must navigate these challenges and find a solution that balances its rejection of coups with the need to maintain a security presence in Niger.
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