The approval from the U.S. to transfer F-16s to Ukraine from the Netherlands and Denmark is bringing hope of getting these valuable warplanes to the battlefield quickly, providing a long-term advantage to Kyiv in the ongoing war. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has given the green light for Danish and Dutch officials to deliver the aircraft once pilots complete their training program. The exact timeline for the planes to be fully operational is uncertain, but it is expected to take a few months at minimum, potentially after Ukraine’s counteroffensive push concludes. Nonetheless, this approval is a significant step forward for Kyiv, and experts believe that the F-16s will enhance the capabilities of Ukrainian troops in their arduous conflict with Russia, regardless of when they arrive.
Bradley Bowman, senior director at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, acknowledges that introducing new aircraft to an air force and maintaining them is a complex process. However, he also highlights Ukraine’s remarkable ability to learn quickly, showcasing their determination and motivation to defend their country, homes, and families against an unprovoked invasion.
The exact delivery date depends on how fast the Ukrainian pilots can complete their training program, which is set to begin this month and is hosted by 11 European allies. Currently, Ukraine is at a significant disadvantage compared to Russian aircraft, as they are using outdated MiG-29s while facing obstacles like Russian attack helicopters, particularly in the southeastern Zaporizhizhia region.
The news of F-16s being sent to Ukraine has generated excitement in the country. The Ukrainian Air Force expressed their enthusiasm on social media platforms, while President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been pushing for the F-16s since the start of the war, sees this as a crucial step towards bolstering national security. President Biden has gradually warmed up to the idea of providing these advanced warplanes and has committed to supporting the training program in Europe to ensure the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine.
White House National Security Council advisor Jake Sullivan has emphasized that the recent Danish and Dutch approval formalizes the process of approving third-party F-16 transfers, potentially paving the way for more deliveries from other countries. This additional support from various nations could further enhance Ukraine’s chances on the battlefield, although the question remains whether the arrival of the F-16s will shift the dynamics of the war. If the planes arrive after the late fall, it may be too late to aid Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Moreover, military analysts raise concerns about integrating the F-16s effectively into Ukraine’s air force to optimize their impact, as the Ukrainian forces face challenges in mastering combined arms maneuvers with armored vehicles and soldiers.
Despite these uncertainties, Joseph Shelzi, an analyst at the Soufan Group, believes that the F-16 deal aims to secure long-term security for Ukraine, even though it will take time for Kyiv to integrate these aircraft fully into their armed forces. Shelzi acknowledges that Russia currently possesses a qualitative and quantitative advantage in air power over Ukraine, suggesting that the F-16s alone will not change the strategic outcome of the war. However, the strain on Russia’s fleet of warplanes and potential degradation of its air superiority over time could be potential factors that shift the balance on the battlefield.
Michael Bohnert, an engineer at the Rand Corporation, supports this notion and argues that even without scoring any air-to-air kills, the F-16s could threaten Russia and contribute to altering the outcomes of the war. While there are numerous possible missions for F-16s, including deep strikes into Russia-occupied territory, close air support, and air defense, Ukrainian forces have already demonstrated their capability to strike deep into Russian territory and effectively cover the skies with air defense systems. This leaves close air support as the primary area where F-16s could have a positive impact, but it is important to manage expectations regarding their deployment and integration.
In conclusion, the approval of F-16 transfers to Ukraine represents a significant development in the ongoing conflict. Although the timeline for their full operational readiness remains uncertain, the addition of these advanced warplanes is expected to enhance Ukraine’s capabilities in its battle against Russia. While it may not be a game-changer in itself, the integration of F-16s into the Ukrainian air force could potentially shift the balance on the battlefield over time. With Russia facing strain and potential degradation of its air superiority, the F-16s may contribute to altering the outcomes of the war and providing long-term security for Ukraine.
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