The recent NATO summit dealt a significant blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the alliance remained united in its opposition to his war in Ukraine while also announcing plans to expand and increase defense spending. The most significant setback for Putin came with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s decision to admit Sweden into NATO after resisting for over a year.
Erdoğan’s reversal not only paves the way for the expansion of the western security alliance but also indicates his growing distance from Putin and closer alignment with the West. Asli Aydıntaşbaş, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, believes this move has upset the Russians and significantly weakened Putin’s position. Erdoğan’s decision has also helped mend Turkey’s strained relations with its NATO allies and given President Biden a notable victory before the high-profile summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
The prisoner release of Ukrainian fighters from the Azov regiment, orchestrated by Erdoğan just days before the Sweden deal, is seen as an even greater blow to Putin. Aydıntaşbaş suggests that this move signifies Erdoğan’s perception of Putin’s weakness, particularly after the Wagner revolt, and his growing alignment with Biden. While Erdoğan may continue to play both sides in the Ukraine conflict, Aydıntaşbaş believes that this shift in Turkey’s stance could lay the groundwork for a significant reset between the West and Turkey, which would be a significant development given Turkey’s status as NATO’s second-largest army.
Erdoğan’s approval of Sweden came after securing concessions from the West, including increased counterterrorism efforts, more arms sales, and Swedish support for Turkey’s European Union membership. Additionally, Erdoğan may have succeeded in securing long-awaited F-16 jet purchases from Washington, as the U.S. announced the resumption of the paused sale just a day after the Sweden agreement.
In addition to these developments, NATO allies at the summit also committed to increasing defense spending levels, a move that would strengthen the alliance and its support for Ukraine. The commitment to spend a minimum of 2 percent of GDP on military resources and security has been a longstanding goal for NATO, and Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reported that 11 allies have now reached or exceeded this target. Overall spending by Canada and Europe has also increased by 8.3 percent this past year, leading Stoltenberg to call it the largest increase in decades.
While Putin may have achieved a minor victory in preventing Ukraine’s fast-track into NATO and the absence of a clear timeline for membership, the U.S. and Ukraine sought to downplay the impact. NATO took steps toward admitting Ukraine, including the establishment of a NATO-Ukraine council and the removal of a procedural hurdle, affirming that Ukraine is closer than ever to membership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed satisfaction with his meeting with Biden and emphasized their productive discussion.
Moreover, NATO allies made significant commitments to support Ukraine in the long run, undermining Russia’s hopes of weakening Western support for the war. A coalition of 11 NATO countries scheduled F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots in August, France confirmed the delivery of much-needed long-range missiles, and the G7 announced a long-term security commitment to Kyiv.
While Russia has tried to downplay the significance of the summit, experts argue that their attempts have largely backfired. The commitment and actions of NATO members, as well as the long-term security commitment of G7 members, demonstrate a resolute stance against Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
The Vilnius summit showcased unwavering support for Ukraine, despite concerns about the progress of the counteroffensive and the potential for a prolonged war. The commitment to Ukraine extends beyond this year, emphasizing a sustained alliance effort in the coming years.
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