Met Office warns that the UK’s record-breaking heatwave will be perceived as ‘mild’ by 2100

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The Met Office has determined that the UK’s hottest year in 2022, with temperatures reaching a record 40C during the summer, will be considered “average” by around 2060 if global warming continues.

In its annual report, the Met Office stated that the unprecedented warmth in 2022 would no longer be seen as unusual by 2100 if global warming reaches 2-3C above pre-industrial levels. By the end of the century, a year like 2022 would be considered “cool.”

The UN has warned that global average temperatures have increased by at least 1.1C, and current government policies are leading to warming between 2.4C and 2.6C.

As global warming accelerates, the UK is expected to experience hotter and drier summers, as well as wetter winters.

Last year, the UK’s annual mean temperature exceeded 10C for the first time. According to Mike Kendon, lead author of the report, the chance of this happening is now approximately “one in every three to four years,” compared to about one in 500 in a world without climate change.

“Climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of a year like 2022,” stated Kendon.

He also noted that temperature extremes and record-breaking events are becoming more frequent and breaking records by larger margins than in the past.

In light of the Sunak government’s plans to soften its green policies and the competing pressures faced by the Labour opposition, Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society, believes that the UK’s weather in 2022 is a strong indication of future conditions.

According to the Met Office, all months in 2022, except December, were hotter than average, making it the warmest 10-year period for the UK since records began in 1884. The report also highlighted an 18.5cm rise in sea levels around the UK since the 1900s, with 11.4cm occurring in the past 30 years.

While 2022 was relatively dry, leading to droughts later in the summer, the Met Office noted that five of the ten wettest years for the UK have occurred since 2000.

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