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Joe Biden’s cautious approach to Russia might just be prolonging the war, risking Ukraine’s chances of success. While the West was initially concerned about provoking Russia with attacks inside its borders, recent actions suggest that Putin is rational enough not to escalate the conflict further. However, Biden continues to play it safe by hesitating to provide F-16s and long-range ATACMS to Ukraine, as well as challenging the Russian blockade of the Black Sea. This hesitation is dragging out the conflict and hindering Ukraine’s progress on the ground.
The news of Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway pledging to donate F-16s to Ukraine is promising, but the training of Ukrainian pilots will take too long, with the aircraft arriving after the current counteroffensive is over. The Biden administration could expedite the process by bringing more Ukrainian pilots to the US for training, similar to the US Air Force’s training of its own F-16 pilots. The Pentagon also has the resources to speed up the provision of aircraft and maintenance systems.
US officials, however, downplay the importance of the F-16, claiming it won’t be a “magic weapon” against Russia’s dense air defences. While no single weapon can win the war alone, the F-16, with its advanced capabilities, could greatly enhance Ukraine’s capabilities. The F-16, combined with other systems like HIMARS, could gradually degrade Russian air defences and support Ukrainian ground forces. The provision of ATACMS is also urgent, as its long-range, precision strikes could make Crimea untenable for Russian forces.
Yet, the Biden administration refuses to provide ATACMS, citing fear of provoking Putin and a shortage in the US arsenal. However, there are as many as 3,000 ATACMS in the US Army, so sending a few hundred to Ukraine wouldn’t deplete US defences. The administration’s unwillingness to challenge Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea coast is another sign of a shortage of political will. Nato should consider escorting merchant vessels, patrolling the Black Sea with combat aircraft, and providing anti-ship missiles and drones to Ukraine.
While the Biden administration deserves praise for its military aid commitment to Ukraine, it is dragging its feet on providing critical assistance. Biden’s fears of a wider war seem excessive, especially in light of recent Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia. Increasing aid to Ukraine won’t significantly raise the risk of a wider war, but it could potentially shorten the existing conflict.
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