Coronavirus transmission has been increasing gradually in recent weeks, prompting local public health officials to encourage the public to take safety precautions as we approach the fall flu and back-to-school seasons. In Los Angeles County, the number of reported COVID-19 infections has nearly doubled in the past month, accompanied by a corresponding increase in virus-related hospitalizations. However, these numbers may be an undercount as they do not include results from home tests. Due to a decrease in reliable testing since the end of the COVID-19 emergency, hospitalizations have become a more reliable metric for understanding the spread of the virus.
While hospitalizations have doubled since the beginning of August, they are still significantly lower compared to the summer and winter surges in 2022. The average weekly rate of coronavirus-related hospital admissions has also increased since July, but the county still falls under the “low” risk category according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. However, if the hospital admission rate continues to increase at the current rate, Los Angeles County could move to the “medium” tier in about four weeks, which could lead to changes in health orders to prevent further spread of the virus.
Although the COVID-19 death rate has not increased significantly, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of deaths in the county associated with COVID-19 in recent weeks. This may be an early indicator of a potential increase in deaths, but it is too early to determine if this is a trend.
Other areas in Southern California, such as Orange County, Long Beach, Riverside County, and San Bernardino County, have also seen increases in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, albeit on a smaller scale.
With the emergence of a new coronavirus strain, BA.2.86, which has 35 new mutations on the virus’ spike protein, there is ongoing monitoring by the CDC and World Health Organization. However, this variant currently accounts for only about 1% of all COVID-19 cases nationwide, and there have been no detections of it in California so far.
Nationally, COVID-19 transmission is on the rise, but current hospitalization numbers are less than half of what they were at the same time last year. The United States is better equipped to prevent a significant surge in cases, thanks to increased tools and immunity.
In conclusion, it is important for the public to remain vigilant and practice safety measures to prevent the further spread of COVID-19 as transmission rates increase.
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