The departure of Nadine Dorries from the Tory party has not elicited much sadness. In fact, many Conservative MPs are relieved and delighted to see her go. One MP even stated that they hadn’t found a colleague who was sorry about her departure. Dorries, who was a key backer of Boris Johnson, has finally initiated the process of formally resigning from the House of Commons after a delay of 78 days since she first announced her intention to do so. Her decision to quit came after a dispute over a peerage. The delay and her absence from speaking in the Commons since June 2022 have provided opposition parties with ample ammunition to criticize her over the summer recess.
During this time, Dorries has focused on attacking her own party, specifically accusing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of undermining his office by fueling public outrage against her. In her resignation statement and subsequent television interview, she criticized Sunak’s record and hinted at the possibility of voting for another party.
The intensity of Dorries’ attacks, although expected given her history as a Sunak critic, has surprised some of her soon-to-be former colleagues who view it as more political drama. While it is generally preferable for No. 10 to avoid by-elections, the upcoming vote in Dorries’ constituency of Mid Bedfordshire is now seen as the lesser of two evils. The government felt that her refusal to resign was becoming detrimental to the party’s electoral prospects and a distraction.
Despite the challenges, some optimists within the party see benefits in Dorries’ departure. She now joins Boris Johnson and Nigel Adams on the outside, making the biggest supporters of Johnson no longer present in parliament. While they can still cause problems for Sunak, such as Dorries’ upcoming book on what she perceives as the political assassination of Johnson, their options for influencing government decisions or threatening no-confidence votes are more limited now. Additionally, the likelihood of a Johnson comeback has decreased in the medium term since he no longer holds a seat. With all three of them out, MPs hope for an end to the turbulent Johnson era.
However, even though the by-election is seen as the better choice for the government, it still presents challenges. With parliament returning next month, the by-election is expected to take place in October at the earliest. This timing coincides with Sunak’s plan to boost his premiership through the party conference and the king’s speech. Mid Bedfordshire is considered a safe Tory seat, with a majority of 24,664. If Labour were to win, it would be a significant collapse in support for the Conservatives in a by-election. While by-election results don’t always foreshadow general election outcomes, a loss would concern MPs with smaller majorities. The Conservative hope is that the vote will split between the Liberal Democrats, independents, and Labour, allowing them to come out ahead.
While some Tories believe that a poor by-election outcome is already factored into their expectations, a defeat would complicate Sunak’s plans to shake things up in the autumn. The initial phase of Sunak’s leadership, focused on calming the markets and his party, is ending, and he intends to adopt a more political approach in the coming months. As election year approaches, Sunak aims to offer more hope and extend beyond his five priorities. However, a damaging by-election would undermine this strategy and reinforce the fatalism feelings among Tory MPs who fear that the election is already lost. Despite this, No. 10 maintains that the lead held by Labour is soft, but a by-election defeat would make it harder for Sunak to convince others outside of Downing Street of this perspective.
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