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Jeff Currie, the renowned global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, is departing from the prestigious Wall Street bank after a successful career spanning 27 years. Known for his optimistic predictions, especially in the energy sector, Currie’s exit marks yet another senior departure from the firm.
Throughout his 15-year tenure at the bank, Currie gained recognition for his bold and bullish calls on various occasions. His most notable prediction was foreseeing the “super cycle” in commodities, which occurred just before the oil price skyrocketed to a record high of $147 a barrel, right before the global financial crisis.
Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s head of research, acknowledged Currie’s significant contributions to strengthening the bank’s commodities franchise in a memo to staff announcing his departure. Hatzius emphasized Currie’s deep market knowledge and extensive expertise across all facets of commodities as instrumental in building and fostering client relationships.
Arjun Murti, a seasoned oil analyst who previously worked with Currie at Goldman, described him as “irreplaceable” and considered his departure as “the end of an era at Goldman Sachs.” Murti, currently serving as an advisor at Veriten, an energy consultancy, shared Currie’s aversion to conforming to the consensus view. In the volatile world of commodities, where oil and gas feature prominently, many prefer to play it safe and follow popular opinion.
Currie, 56 years old, joined Goldman in 1996 and became a partner at the bank in 2008. His oil market thesis revolves around the idea that inadequate investment in energy infrastructure will result in sporadic spikes in commodity prices.
Goldman Sachs boasts a dominant commodities business, which originated from its acquisition of J Aron in 1981. This trading desk has been a major profit driver for the firm, particularly in 2022, benefiting from significant price fluctuations amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Insiders humorously suggest that J Aron truly took over Goldman as former CEO Lloyd Blankfein and his second-in-command Gary Cohn both hail from the commodities sector, injecting a dynamic and assertive style into the bank’s traditional culture.
Currie’s career in commodities spanned from the first Gulf War in 1991 to the invasion of Ukraine in recent years. Notably, this period witnessed Goldman and Morgan Stanley earning the moniker “the Wall Street refiners” due to their adept combination of physical and financial trading.
While other firms attempted to replicate Goldman’s and Morgan Stanley’s multibillion-dollar franchises in the years leading up to the financial crisis, their success was limited.
Following the financial crisis, Goldman’s commodities division experienced a decline as tighter regulations resulted in a reduction of riskier physical and proprietary trading.
Nevertheless, due to Currie’s influence and Goldman’s substantial position in commodities trading, Currie’s forecasts continued to carry significant weight in the industry.
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