On August 14th, Pedro Briones, a congressional candidate and prominent political figure in Ecuador, was tragically killed in a shooting incident. This disturbing event occurred less than a week after the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, a presidential candidate and outspoken critic of corruption, who was shot dead after leaving a campaign rally in Quito, the country’s capital. The close proximity of these killings to Ecuador’s upcoming general election, scheduled for Sunday, has caused shock and condemnation both within the nation and worldwide. These tragic events serve as a stark reminder that no one, not even a presidential candidate, is safe in Ecuador.
In response to Villavicencio’s assassination, Christian Zurita, an investigative journalist and close friend of Mr. Villavicencio, has been chosen by their political party to run in his place. The future remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Ecuador’s deep political polarization will not contribute to the resolution of its violence crisis.
The shooting of Mr. Briones is currently under investigation, and six Colombian nationals have been detained in connection with the killing of Mr. Villavicencio. The handling of these ongoing inquiries by Ecuador’s criminal justice system will serve as a crucial test for the nation. Ecuadorean politicians, along with their international partners, must demonstrate the political determination and allocate the necessary resources to ensure an independent and thorough investigation into these killings. If the authorities merely prosecute a few hired assassins and end the investigation there, criminal groups will become even more audacious. However, if they choose the longer and more challenging path of dismantling and bringing to justice the masterminds behind these killings, as well as exposing the ties between organized crime and elements within the state, Ecuador may find a way back from the brink.
As a political scientist specializing in Latin America, I have lived and worked in countries like Colombia and Guatemala, where gangs and organized criminal groups have wreaked havoc as they grew in power. While Ecuador has historically avoided the violence fueled by drug trafficking and internal armed conflicts that plagued its South American neighbors in the latter half of the 20th century, it possesses all the ingredients for a drug trafficker’s paradise. Situated between Peru and Colombia, the world’s largest coca producers, and with an economy that has adopted the US dollar as its legal currency since 2000, Ecuador is an attractive destination for money launderers.
The demobilization of Colombia’s Revolutionary Armed Forces in 2017, which had previously controlled trafficking routes in Ecuador, created a power vacuum that new cartels and gangs are now vying to fill. Earlier this year, I witnessed how violence is reshaping daily life in the country. Ecuador’s homicide rate is now the fourth highest in Latin America, and extortion has reached alarming levels. As a result, once vibrant streets have become eerily deserted, and businesses are closing their doors at dusk. I remember witnessing a scene where a storekeeper and his customers huddled around a smartphone, watching and applauding clips of vigilante justice against suspected gang members. Many individuals I spoke to expressed intentions to migrate. Since October, over 77,000 people have arrived at the U.S.-Mexico border, representing an eightfold increase compared to 2020.
Policy mistakes have left Ecuador ill-prepared to confront this escalating violence. The first missteps were made by Rafael Correa, a populist president who served from 2007 to 2017. While some measures implemented during his administration helped reduce homicides, he also disbanded the police unit responsible for special investigations, closed a U.S. military base that supported efforts to monitor Ecuador’s airspace and territorial waters, and doubled the prison population, creating fertile ground for gang activities. His successors have also made their share of blunders.
President Lenín Moreno sought to root out corruption by removing many of Correa’s appointees in the executive and judiciary branches. Moreover, he won a referendum that reinstated presidential term limits, which had been abolished by his predecessor. The judiciary initiated investigations into corruption during the Correa era. This led to heightened polarization between Correa supporters, who claimed to be victims of politically motivated justice, and critics like Moreno, who argued that they were rebuilding the democratic checks and balances eroded under Correa’s rule. In the midst of this political turmoil, gangs transformed Ecuador’s overcrowded prisons into their headquarters while infiltrating government institutions and the armed forces.
Guillermo Lasso, Ecuador’s current president, has been engaged in a confrontation with Correa’s followers within the National Assembly. In May, Lasso dissolved the Assembly by decree. He has implemented state emergencies and deployed troops to combat gangs and cartels. Despite these efforts, the grip of criminal organizations on the country has only tightened. Worryingly, Lasso’s brother-in-law, who was once a close adviser, is under investigation for alleged ties to the Albanian mafia. In March, a businessman implicated in the case was found dead.
Ecuador’s crime surge is transnational, with Mexican cartels, Colombian and Venezuelan groups, and the Albanian mafia all vying for control of the nation’s drug trade while undermining the state. While finding a way forward may appear daunting, it is not impossible. To reduce the power of organized crime and violence, authorities must combat corruption, investigate connections to local and national politicians, and pursue money launderers and individuals linked to the state.
This is a challenging task for a country where institutions are increasingly compromised by criminal elements. It will require continued cooperation and bravery on the part of the police, prosecutors, judges, and politicians in Ecuador. However, progress is achievable, as seen in Colombia’s case. Starting in 2006, the Colombian government took steps to investigate, prosecute, and sentence over 60 members of Congress who supported and facilitated drug-trafficking paramilitary groups.
President Lasso has invited the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Colombian police to assist in the investigation of Mr. Villavicencio’s killing. While this cooperation is a positive step, it must continue beyond the current administration, regardless of the election outcome this Sunday, for the effort to truly yield results.
Ecuador’s leaders must resist the temptation to solely rely on the military to combat crime or use brute force as a means of combating cartels and gangs. This approach has proven ineffective in countries like Mexico and often exacerbates violence. Instead, Ecuador’s leaders must support independent prosecutors, judges, and the police force.
Deep polarization has created significant divisions between supporters and opponents of Mr. Correa, including Mr. Villavicencio. Over the past week, politicians from both sides have resorted to blame-shifting for the deteriorating security situation. To move forward, they must unite in pursuit of a common goal: investigating the ties between criminal groups and public officials, without seeking to shield members of their own factions. Regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential election, the victor must rise above political divisions and prioritize the nation’s interests over party loyalty.
The assassination of Mr. Villavicencio is a turning point for Ecuador. However, there is still time to act before the country descends further down the path traveled by Colombia and Mexico. It is what Mr. Villavicencio would have wished for.
Will Freeman is a fellow specializing in Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. His focus is on understanding the factors that contribute to the success or failure of developing democracies in combating grand corruption and impunity.
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