The Hamas attack against Israel is not only a failure of Israeli and U.S. intelligence, but also a significant achievement for Iran’s axis of resistance from Yemen to Gaza. This meticulously planned operation, involving motorized paragliders, drones, and hostage-taking, required extensive training and support from Iran and Hezbollah. A Hamas spokesperson, in a tweet, expressed pride in Iranian assistance.
In Tehran, members of Parliament chanted “Death to Israel” while Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh warned Arab countries that Israel couldn’t protect them, specifically targeting those who had signed the Abraham Accords. Hamas’s armed wing commander, Mohammed Deif, claimed that the attack would put an end to Israeli air raids in Syria against Iranian and Hezbollah assets.
The images of yesterday’s violence will become symbols of power for Hamas and Iran, showcasing their ability to overpower the Israeli military. However, for the Palestinian civilians living under occupation or siege, there is a bitter reminder of the violence they have endured as well. While Hamas may believe it has achieved revenge, the cost and duration of their victory will be high and short-lived.
The scale and nature of the attack indicate that Hamas has significantly improved its capabilities and rewritten the rules of engagement. Israel’s response will be complicated by the presence of hostages, and negotiations for their release will be complex. An Israeli ground incursion into Gaza is likely, along with potential strikes against Iran. Hezbollah has shown support for Hamas but is unlikely to get further involved due to the potential consequences for Lebanon.
Talks of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia will be halted in light of the situation. Saudi Arabia has called for restraint and emphasized the dangerous nature of the ongoing occupation. This crisis might further highlight the need for Israeli concessions to the Palestinians for any progress in normalization. Iran and Hamas may have succeeded in disrupting this dialogue.
In the past, Iran and Saudi Arabia offered limited support to the Palestinians, but ultimately left them to face Israeli retaliation alone. This time, however, Hamas has the backing of Iran, but Palestinian civilians will still bear the brunt of Israeli retaliation while Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah play their regional game.
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