When President Marcos embarked on his visit to China earlier this year, one of the main objectives of his discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping was to establish a direct line of communication between the two countries in the event of a crisis. This hotline was meant to connect the Maritime and Ocean Affairs Office of the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) with the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
However, recent events have shown that this hotline is not as effective as initially intended. When the DFA reached out to their Chinese counterparts during an incident near Ayungin Shoal, the China Coast Guard did not respond and instead used water cannons against Philippine boats. This raises the question of what can be done when one party is willing to talk, but the other refuses to engage in dialogue.
To address this issue, the Stratbase ADR Institute, in collaboration with the United States Institute of Peace and Australian Aid, organized a workshop in Makati City. The workshop consisted of five panel discussions that explored the effectiveness of crisis communications mechanisms in state relations, diplomacy for crisis management channels in Philippine-China and US-China relations, establishing communication mechanisms to prevent future crises, multilateral approaches to crisis management with China, and lessons learned from the Philippines’ crisis experience with China. These discussions shed light on the Ayungin Shoal incident and its aftermath, providing valuable insights into the mindset and previous actions of China.
It is evident that the water cannon incident was a deliberate action by China, and it is possible that they did not respond to the hotline because they did not consider it a crisis. In light of these developments, Filipinos are eagerly awaiting the government’s response. Surveys conducted since 2016 show that the majority of Filipinos, while concerned about economic issues, are also aware of the situation in the West Philippine Sea. These surveys reveal that there is strong support for forming alliances and strengthening relationships with other countries, enhancing military capabilities, conducting joint military patrols and exercises, and focusing on external threats.
Despite China’s refusal to acknowledge the premise of the dialogue, it is important to continue engaging with them through both official and unofficial channels. Defense and security issues are closely intertwined with economic and other pressing matters, making dialogue essential. Additionally, leveraging the support expressed by our friends and allies in the international community is crucial. These nations share our values and are committed to upholding a rules-based international order. They have condemned China’s actions and believe that our victory at the Permanent Court of Arbitration provides a solid foundation for strengthening our defense mechanisms.
The message to China is clear: We, the Filipino people, have the law on our side, and no amount of stonewalling or propaganda can change this fact. We have the support of numerous peace-loving nations who value decency and proper conduct. This is our nation and our territory, and we will not be intimidated by bullies.
In conclusion, while there are challenges in the current crisis with China, it is imperative to continue dialogue while seeking support from our allies. The Filipino people remain resolute in defending our rights and territories.
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