A dose of the Novavax vaccine is being prepared by a health worker as the Dutch Health Service Organization initiates the Novavax vaccination program in The Hague, Netherlands, on March 21, 2022 (source:Patrick Van Katwijk | Getty Images).
Novavax’s latest Covid vaccine has been authorized by U.S. regulators, allowing Americans to finally access it. This comes a few weeks after Pfizer and Moderna released their new vaccines, with more than 4 million patients receiving shots in September. However, Wall Street analysts are not concerned about the delay. They believe Novavax is well positioned to catch up and compete this fall, particularly due to logistical issues faced by other vaccines and the FDA authorization allowing wide accessibility to Novavax’s vaccine.
B. Riley Securities analyst Mayank Mamtani stated, “I’m really not concerned about the timeline or lag relative to the other shots.” He added that the new shot was cleared only slightly later than Novavax had estimated.
This is positive news for Novavax, as the company has been working to strengthen its financial position. Novavax’s Covid vaccine is its only commercially available product, and the company plans to rely on its sales and cost-cutting efforts to stay afloat.
Public health officials view Novavax’s vaccine as an alternative for individuals who prefer not to take messenger RNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. Novavax’s vaccine utilizes protein-based technology, a method commonly used in routine vaccinations for hepatitis B and shingles.
Novavax Chief Corporate Affairs and Advocacy Officer Silvia Taylor stated that data shows 25% to 30% of people prefer a protein-based vaccine. They are looking forward to meeting this demand, especially with the emergence of new variants and rising Covid cases.
Novavax’s stock surged more than 10% following FDA clearance of the new vaccine. However, the stock is still down over 25% for the year after experiencing a significant drop in value last year.
The FDA has authorized Novavax’s updated vaccine for emergency use in individuals aged 12 and older. Patients who have previously received a different Covid vaccine can receive one dose of Novavax’s vaccine, while unvaccinated individuals can receive two doses. This authorization aligns Novavax with Pfizer and Moderna in terms of accessibility for teens and adults.
The rollout of Novavax’s vaccine is happening after Pfizer and Moderna encountered challenges during the initial distribution of their shots due to insurance and supply-related issues. Novavax may have an opportunity to catch up and reach more individuals who have been unable to access mRNA vaccines.
While there is no guarantee that Novavax’s rollout will be without issues, health-care providers and pharmacies are resolving logistical challenges. The federal government’s shift of Covid vaccine distribution to the private market has presented some difficulties, but improvements are being made.
The timing of Novavax’s vaccine arrival seems favorable, as Covid vaccine demand is expected to peak in the U.S. this fall and winter. Americans may be less urgent about getting vaccinated compared to earlier stages of the pandemic, resulting in a peak in November. By that time, Novavax’s vaccine will likely be widely available alongside Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines.
The biggest unknown this fall is how many Americans will choose to receive another Covid vaccine. Last year, only about 17% of the U.S. population received boosters. This fall will provide insight into the demand for Covid vaccines in the commercial market.
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