Hello and Happy Halloween from our nation’s capital! Last night, adorable kids dressed in pumpkin suits and princess dresses roamed the Senate office buildings in search of treats. But that’s not all, folks—get ready for an iconic and bi-paw-tisan dog costume parade this afternoon! But first, let’s dive into the news.
Newly appointed House Speaker Mike Johnson is already on a collision course with Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell. The fate of military assistance to three of America’s democratic allies—Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan—is hanging in the balance. President Joe Biden has urged Congress to swiftly pass a $106 billion funding package that includes aid for these nations.
The White House is hoping to combine all military assistance into one package, which would also include funding for border security. However, Johnson introduced legislation on Monday to split off $14.3 billion for Israel from Biden’s overall request. House GOP leaders expect the chamber to vote on this standalone bill this week. However, Democrats may overwhelmingly oppose it due to the inclusion of a provision that cuts funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).
Republicans in the House have been growing increasingly resistant to providing additional aid to Ukraine. Some GOP lawmakers are frustrated with the Biden administration’s efforts to pair controversial Ukraine funding with broadly popular aid to Israel. McConnell, however, seems to be onboard with this strategy. While he has suggested beefing up the package’s border security details, he mostly aligns with Democratic leaders on addressing the bill as a whole.
McConnell stated, “Right now, loud voices on both sides of the aisle are suggesting that American leadership somehow isn’t worth the cost. Some say our support for Ukraine comes at the expense of more important priorities. It’s a false choice. America is a global superpower with global interests. And enemies of democracy around the world would like nothing more than to outlast our resolve to resist Russian aggression.”
The future of this legislation in a divided Congress remains unclear. The two chambers are currently in a phase of setting leverage, with real negotiations yet to come. Rhode Island Democrat Sen. Jack Reed, who chairs the Armed Services Committee, hopes to introduce a comprehensive bill this week. Interviews with GOP senators on Monday night revealed that there is likely enough Republican support for the combined aid package, with Democratic support assured, to overcome the Senate’s 60-vote threshold. However, if there’s no way to pass Ukraine spending through the House, Republican senators wouldn’t necessarily oppose a standalone Israel aid bill.
While Johnson’s standalone bill aims to offset new Israel spending by cutting $14.3 billion from the $80 billion allocated for the IRS last year, Democrats argue that this approach doesn’t truly cut spending, but rather cuts revenue. Marc Goldwein, senior vice president and senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, estimates that the IRS cuts would add roughly $30 billion to the debt. He suggests targeting other areas for spending cuts to truly offset the aid to Israel.
It’s important to note that Johnson’s bill doesn’t appear to be a serious attempt at crafting law. Lawmakers interpret it as an opening offer to extract concessions from the Biden administration. Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz criticized Republicans, accusing them of conducting foreign policy and national security for political gain rather than genuine concern for these issues.
In the Senate, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin isn’t bothered by the House GOP proposal. He wants the IRS to update its technology with some of the funds, but believes that the $80 billion allocated in the IRA may have been excessive. So, if there’s no harm to the IRS’s technological advancement, he could support the bill.
However, other Senate Democrats reject the idea of a standalone Israel aid bill, regardless of the funding mechanism. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen outright opposes an Israel bill without Ukraine funding attached, emphasizing the commitment made to stand by Ukraine. Sen. Sherrod Brown also insists that Ukraine must be included as it is crucial for national security.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen expressed that the aid proposals for Israel and Ukraine must travel together to prevent surrendering Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It remains uncertain how Senate Republicans can convince House GOP leaders to bring a bill with more Ukraine aid to the floor. Sen. Mike Rounds jokingly referred to it as “the art of the deal,” while Sen. Dan Sullivan suggested it would depend on the actions of House Republicans.
Ultimately, all four pillars—Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and China, and border security—need to be addressed, according to Sullivan. McConnell may feel a sense of urgency to convince his Republican colleagues to act, as the task will become more difficult for Republican candidates in 2024 if Congress fails to approve additional Ukraine assistance this year. Furthermore, a sizable faction within his own conference believes a separate Israel bill is the best solution.
Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin believes Ukraine aid is more divisive and doesn’t want to delay the support that Israel needs. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida echoes his sentiment. However, other Senate Democrats are against a standalone Israel aid bill. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen flatly rejects it, and Sen. Sherrod Brown emphasizes the importance of including Ukraine as part of the aid package.
Amidst all the deliberations, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin emphasizes the significance of US support for Ukraine, stating that without it, Putin will succeed. Van Hollen hopes that a majority of House Republicans will support additional Ukraine aid. However, it remains uncertain how the Senate can persuade House GOP leaders to bring the bill to the floor. Using a discharge petition, a tool to force consideration of bills, could be a lengthy process that doesn’t fit the timeline. As Van Hollen puts it, “We’ve got to get there sooner than that.”
Stay tuned as this complex legislative process unfolds.
