• Bet the Cowboys spread (-3): There is a significant talent disparity between these two teams on both offense and defense.
• Bet Brandin Cooks to exceed 43.5 receiving yards: The new addition to the Cowboys’ receiving corps is primed to excel against the Giants’ inexperienced rookie cornerbacks.
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The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2023 NFL season with the sixth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl and are ranked sixth in PFF’s Week 1 power rankings. Last year, the Cowboys boasted the third-best defensive unit in terms of coverage and pass rush, as measured by expected points added per play. This success was due in part to their ability to generate impactful defensive plays, such as sacks and turnovers. The Cowboys have strengthened their secondary by acquiring Stephon Gilmore from the Colts to pair with standout cornerback Trevon Diggs.
However, there are concerns regarding the Cowboys’ offense, primarily related to coaching. Former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore guided the team to top-10 rankings in no-huddle percentage and situation-neutral pace rate, while leading the league in points per game and yards per game in three of his four seasons. Moore has been replaced by Brian Schottenheimer, whose offenses have historically been less productive and operated at a slower pace.
Schottenheimer has only achieved a top-half passing rate in the league once in the past 12 years. Nonetheless, Mike McCarthy will be calling the plays. In terms of personnel, Brandin Cooks replaces Noah Brown as one of the team’s top three receivers, which can be seen as an improvement. However, the tight end position has been filled by a committee following the departure of Dalton Schultz. On a positive note, the Cowboys will be utilizing Tony Pollard in an expanded role.
The Giants retain their coaching staff from last year, where they surpassed expectations and secured a playoff spot, earning Brian Daboll the Coach of the Year award. However, their defense remains a major concern despite their average offensive performance. The team will be starting two rookie cornerbacks, first-round pick Deonte Banks and sixth-round selection Tre Hawkins. Additionally, their defensive front had the highest EPA per play allowed figure and recorded the highest average depth of tackle on rushing plays in the league.
Given their defensive concerns, the Giants’ offense must make every effort to stay on the field. The addition of top-five tight end Darren Waller strengthens their passing game. However, their outside receiving options have not improved, with Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Parris Campbell starting alongside Sterling Shepard, while the currently injured Wan’Dale Robinson is set to contribute later in the season.
Dallas Cowboys -3 (-118 DraftKings)
Although the Giants have a solid coaching advantage, there is a significant talent disparity between the two teams on both offense and defense, making this game difficult to predict.
The Cowboys’ offensive line is currently plagued by injuries, with left guard Tyler Smith already ruled out and left tackle Tyron Smith listed as questionable. If Smith is unable to play, the situation becomes even more challenging. However, the Cowboys’ dominance on both sides of the ball creates uncertainty regarding how well the Giants’ defense can hold up.
Although Adoree’ Jackson, the Giants’ top cornerback, will likely cover Cowboys WR1 CeeDee Lamb, receivers Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup possess enough talent to exploit favorable matchups against the rookie cornerbacks. Furthermore, the Cowboys’ top-three defense will face a Giants’ offense that is expected to regress after outperforming in the previous season.
WR Brandin Cooks Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-113 Caesars)
The Cowboys’ outside receivers should have advantageous matchups against two rookie cornerbacks, one of whom was selected in the sixth round. Brandin Cooks has experienced a slight decline recently but will benefit from a significant upgrade in quarterback quality since moving from Houston to Dallas. Therefore, we anticipate a positive rebound in his performance.
With CeeDee Lamb likely facing Adoree’ Jackson and concerns along the offensive line, other receivers will have opportunities to make a greater impact in the game. Cooks’ excellent route-running skills position him to quickly find openings and serve as a reliable target for Dak Prescott, particularly if he faces pressure from the defense.
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