Just a couple of months ago, there were speculations about a potential shift in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin. Erdogan had a positive meeting with President Biden, allowed Ukrainian commanders held as prisoners to return to the battlefield, and dropped resistance to Sweden joining NATO. However, during a joint appearance with Putin in Sochi, there was no significant change in Erdogan’s balancing act between Russia and the West. They discussed expanding their partnership, increasing trade, and collaborating on energy issues despite efforts by NATO allies to isolate Russia.
This joint appearance made it clear that their relationship is strong and likely to continue developing. Both sides have more to gain than lose from this partnership. Turkey has been a vital channel for Russia, declining to join Western sanctions and continuing to provide essential goods. In return, Russia has become a fertile market for Turkish exports, providing delayed gas payments and deposits in Turkey’s central bank to help with Turkey’s economic crisis.
Erdogan has managed to please his NATO allies without compromising his relationship with Putin. Putin benefits from having an indirect way to communicate with the alliance through a NATO member, sometimes to the frustration of other members. The evolving puzzle of Erdogan’s relationship with Putin has been a challenge for Western policymakers as they navigate the complexities of the war in Ukraine. Erdogan condemned Russia’s invasion, offered aid to Ukraine, and expanded economic ties with Russia while maintaining a friendly relationship with Putin.
While this summer seemed to indicate warmer ties between Erdogan and his NATO allies, the meeting in Sochi highlighted the entwined nature of the Russia-Turkey relationship. Trade between the two countries has increased significantly, and Turkey has become a popular destination for Russian tourists. Energy cooperation is also growing, with Russia allowing Turkey to delay gas payments and make payments in different currencies, easing pressure on Turkey’s reserves.
The leaders discussed various topics, including conducting more trade in their national currencies and possibly military matters. Despite their talk of increased cooperation, they were unable to restore the Black Sea grain deal. They have also discussed the idea of establishing a gas hub in Turkey, which would benefit both countries. However, the viability of this proposal has been questioned by energy experts, as the European Union has been actively reducing its reliance on Russian gas imports.
In conclusion, the meeting between Erdogan and Putin reaffirmed their strong relationship. While Erdogan has managed to maintain ties with NATO allies, his partnership with Putin offers significant benefits for both sides. The complexity of their relationship continues to challenge Western policymakers as they navigate the complexities of the war in Ukraine.
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