Exit polls indicate that right-wing parties in Spain have a clear chance of securing a majority win.

On July 23, 2023, voters in Spain headed to the polls at the historical building of Universitat de Barcelona to cast their votes and elect Spain’s next government. According to exit polls, Spain’s conservative party PP [Partido Popular] is poised to lead negotiations in forming a new government in Madrid, potentially signaling an end to the rule of socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Initial exit polls released by RTVE showed that PP secured between 145 and 150 seats, followed by the incumbent socialist party PSOE with between 113 and 118 seats. However, an absolute majority requires 176 seats.

The focus now lies on which political force will emerge as the third largest from this election, as neither of the two major parties secured a clear majority. It remains uncertain whether the far-right party Vox came in third or fourth, as exit polls suggest a close competition with the left-leaning Sumar party.

A significant question is whether PP will forge a formal alliance with Vox, potentially marking the return of the far right to power since Francisco Franco’s dictatorship in 1975. The right-wing bloc could potentially achieve a working majority, although complications may arise in collaborating at the national level, given concerns raised by some members of PP regarding Vox’s anti-LGBT rights and anti-immigration policy.

The snap election was prompted by the socialist PSOE’s significant defeat in regional and municipal polls in May, even though general elections were originally scheduled for the end of the year.

Notably, this Sunday vote was the first-ever held during the summer. The extreme heat experienced in different parts of the country in recent weeks may have brought climate policy to the forefront of voters’ minds.

Pedro Sanchez has served as Spain’s prime minister since 2018 and has faced criticism for his pardoning of politicians supporting regional independence. His tenure has also been marred by issues with the “only yes means yes” sexual consent law, which created a loophole that reduced the sentences of convicted rapists.

Despite these controversies, Sanchez’s economic record remained strong leading up to the election. Spain’s economy grew by over 5% in 2022 and is projected to expand by approximately 1.5% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Furthermore, Spain reported one of the lowest inflation rates in Europe, with the country’s economy ministry noting a rate below 2% in June, down from the historic highs of 2022. However, political experts believe that the Sunday vote was primarily driven by cultural and societal concerns.