In the midst of tensions between Europe, the United States, and Russia due to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey chose to refer to Russia’s president as “my friend.” This stance contradicted the efforts of NATO leaders to expand the alliance, as Erdogan sought concessions for his nation. However, unexpectedly, Erdogan changed his position and allowed Sweden to join NATO, leading to a sense of strength and unity at the NATO summit.
The reasons behind Erdogan’s decision remain unknown, as he has not commented publicly on the matter. Nevertheless, it seems that he realized he had little to gain from blocking Sweden and could potentially benefit more from repairing his damaged relationships with the United States and other NATO allies. In fact, Erdogan portrayed his meeting with President Biden as a fresh start in their previously strained relationship.
Simultaneously, Erdogan has shown signs of distancing Turkey from Russia, which would align him more closely with Western leaders and further isolate President Putin. Turkey’s unique position between Russia and the West has allowed it to serve as a diplomatic intermediary in brokering agreements and maintaining trade relationships. However, Western officials have been unsure of Erdogan’s true allegiances due to his frequent and friendly meetings with Putin.
During the NATO summit, the atmosphere between Erdogan and Biden appeared jovial as they spoke to reporters before their talks. Erdogan expressed his desire to work with Biden through his new term and wished him luck in the forthcoming elections. This sudden change in Erdogan’s stance on Sweden aligns with his political style, as he often doubles down on policies for personal gain and discards them when they no longer serve his purpose.
Erdogan’s decision may also be influenced by Turkey’s struggling economy, as maintaining good relations and economic ties with the West could help alleviate the pressures of inflation, debt, and earthquake recovery costs. Sweden complied with Erdogan’s demands by amending its laws, extraditing individuals, and promising continued counterterrorism efforts and increased economic cooperation.
While the agreement between Turkey and Sweden did not directly impact the deal on F-16 fighter jets with the United States, it likely influenced Erdogan’s decision. The U.S. officials assured Erdogan of their support but emphasized the need for congressional approval. They suggested that approving Sweden’s NATO bid would make it easier to sway Congress in favor of the fighter jet deal.
Ultimately, Erdogan recognized that prolonging the process would only strain relations with NATO allies further. This change in stance also signifies his efforts to shift Turkey away from Russia and toward the West. By allowing Sweden into NATO and working towards the F-16 agreement, Erdogan aims to improve the cooling relationship with Washington, which Biden has kept at arm’s length since assuming the presidency.
In conclusion, Erdogan’s sudden shift on Sweden’s NATO membership reflects his political style of maximizing personal gain and discarding policies once they lose their worth. This move also serves his economic interests and indicates a potential shift away from Russia and towards the West. By accepting Sweden into NATO, Erdogan hopes to improve his strained relationship with Biden and gain support for the F-16 fighter jet deal.
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