Who needs friends when you have enemies like this? Thailand’s military-royalist establishment and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra have had a long history of hostility, marked by coups, chaos, and even violence. However, a seismic new deal has brought an end – at least for now – to their conflict. Thaksin, the exiled tycoon, returned from self-imposed exile on Tuesday, thanks to a secret political agreement with the army. On the same day, his ally Srettha Thavisin became the prime minister with the support of military-backed parties, breaking the deadlock that followed the May election and ending a decade of military rule.
Thaksin, a billionaire telecoms entrepreneur turned populist politician, rose to power in 2001 with the support of rural Thais and the urban poor. While he improved their living standards for a while, he was also responsible for massive corruption and grave human rights abuses. After being overthrown by the military, he was convicted in absentia for abusing his power and chose to remain abroad. Since then, his proxies have won elections but have been stopped by the conservative elites. In 2014, his sister was removed as prime minister in another coup.
Yet, despite their bitter past, the two sides have formed an unlikely alliance. Thaksin was immediately sent to jail upon his return, but this was short-lived. Within hours, he was transferred to a hospital, and it is expected that he will receive a pardon. The idea of allowing him back into the country disturbs conservatives who see him as a dangerous and unscrupulous figure threatening the status quo. For his supporters, called the “red shirts,” joining forces with the army is horrifying, especially considering the brutal crackdown on protests in 2010 that resulted in the deaths of over 90 civilians. In a poll, almost 65% of respondents disapproved of Pheu Thai’s cooperation with military-backed parties.
What unites the two sides is the realization that they face a greater threat together. Particularly, the younger generation is fed up with the establishment. While their parents may see it as a guardian of stability, they view it as suppressing progress and freedom. In the May elections, the opposition won by a landslide. However, the surprise came when Move Forward, a progressive new party advocating for demilitarization, breaking up monopolies, and reforming draconian laws, surpassed Pheu Thai. The Thai people wanted Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward, to be the prime minister, but he was blocked by military-appointed senators.
Initially, Pheu Thai supported Pita and vowed not to work with the army, but now they claim they have no choice but to cooperate in order to address the country’s struggling economy. The military has proven to be both inept and corrupt during its time in power. Thailand is falling behind its neighboring countries. Thaksin also understands that Move Forward has taken over as the voice of opposition and democracy, diminishing his own influence as he approaches the age of 74. On the other hand, conservative forces likely believe they can manipulate him to counter Move Forward while keeping him under control, realizing that his credibility diminishes by aligning with them.
Unfortunately, this deal cannot serve as the foundation for a successful or stable government. Once again, the Thai population is being pushed aside as those in power engage in political games. However, it has become evident that such maneuvering cannot erase the nation’s underlying transformation. The people of Thailand deserve better, and they are increasingly demanding it.
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