A trio of byelections took place in England, providing some relief for the main party leaders. However, the results were not necessarily favorable for their parties. Rishi Sunak can now breathe a bit easier since the Tory party did not lose three seats. Nevertheless, the Tories will be concerned about their defeat in the bluest parts of Britain. On the other hand, Sir Keir Starmer has demonstrated his ability to win in a Conservative stronghold, similar to New Labour’s success in 1997 when they overturned a 20,000-seat majority in North Yorkshire. However, the Labour party’s failure to win in London raises questions about their electoral strategy. It seems that voters believe the Conservative party should lose the next election, but the Labour party has yet to attain an outright victory.
The significance of Thursday’s votes may be somewhat diminished. The turnout for these byelections was low, averaging 25% below the turnout of the 2019 general election. Many loyal party members tend to view these byelections as protest votes. Additionally, it should be noted that the political map of Britain will be redrawn before the next election. Out of the three byelection seats this week, only Uxbridge and South Ruislip will remain largely the same.
Most Conservative MPs will perceive the results as detrimental to their career prospects. They will be uneasy about the tactical voting against the Tories from both Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters in all three byelections. The Liberal Democrats’ triumph in Somerton and Frome indicates that they have created a new battleground in the rural southwest of England, distinct from the Conservative-dominated suburban seats of the “blue wall” in the southeast. The fact that the Greens placed third in all three seats should raise concerns. The party received 10% of the vote in Somerset, and if their supporters had backed Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Mr Sunak would have become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three byelections in a day.
Labour’s failure to secure the London seat cannot be solely attributed to Sadiq Khan, the capital’s mayor, or his ultra-low emission zone. It was a strategic mistake on the part of the Labour leadership to enter a byelection without a plan to make the transition to cleaner cars affordable for individuals struggling with the high cost of living. This could have been achieved through the implementation of enhanced scrappage schemes, which reduce the cost of replacing vehicles, investing in public transport, introducing more electric charging stations, and expanding exemptions for vulnerable households. These initiatives could be funded by extending windfall taxes, as suggested here.
Although the Conservatives have instructed local authorities to combat air pollution by charging drivers, they have often failed to provide adequate funding to support drivers during this transition. For instance, Manchester’s mayor, Andy Burnham, has resisted this approach, arguing that investment is necessary before imposing charges on the dirtiest vehicles. Instead of challenging the government, Sir Keir has embraced the Conservative rhetoric that Labour cannot gain power by increasing expenditure.
Sir Keir has also made a point of opposing his party’s instincts, engaging in unnecessary conflicts such as the dispute over a benefit cut that has exacerbated poverty, and aligning with Sir Tony Blair, who is unpopular among many Labour supporters. These gestures may potentially result in more lost votes than gained ones. The country is in disarray, with public services in disrepair. There are valid reasons for not voting for Mr Sunak, who lacks a clear plan to fix Britain. Therefore, at the upcoming national policy forum, Sir Keir must present compelling justifications for voting Labour. It will be crucial to develop policies that can transform the mounting disillusionment with the Conservatives into electoral support.
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