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According to current trends, the Dutch parliamentary election is anyone’s game with four competing party leaders vying for power as polling stations open. The latest polling data have left the outcome up in the air, especially with the sudden surge in support for Geert Wilders’ far-right party, the Freedom Party (PVV), known for its anti-Islam and anti-EU stance. The tumultuous pre-election polls show Wilders’ PVV par with outgoing premier Mark Rutte’s VVD, with the Labour-Green alliance and Pieter Omtzigt’s centrist party following close behind, battling for third and fourth place respectively. Despite the close numbers, a significant 63% of voters remain undecided on their final choice even a day before the election, as reported by report.
If Wilders’ PVV manages to clinch a victory, it will mark a significant moment in Dutch politics, given that the mainstream parties have shut Wilders out of power-sharing arrangements for almost the past decade. Although the leader of Rutte’s party expressed willingness to engage in coalition negotiations with Wilders’ PVV, Wilders himself has shifted to a more moderate stance in anticipation of the election. Despite this shift, Wilders’ anti-Islam and anti-EU policies remain at the forefront of his party’s election program. Calling for a “Nexit” referendum and the cessation of all weapon supplies to Ukraine from the EU, Wilders remains a polarizing figure.
Polling frenzy
Heightening this already tense situation is the unpredicted surge of support for Wilders’ party, as observed by pollster Maurice de Hond. De Hond found that the PVV and the VVD are neck and neck in potential seats, with the other leading parties closely behind. Nevertheless, the validity of these results has raised considerable questions regarding whether the other parties would be willing to unite with Wilders in the government, especially with his strong anti-Islam policies in place. Despite being in politics for 25 years, Wilders’ extreme views have kept him out of power-sharing coalitions, with the exception of a short-lived backing of a Rutte minority cabinet.
While the upcoming election results will determine the composition of the coalition, it remains to be seen whether strategic voting will take place as supporters of the Green-Left alliance seek to bar the far right from holding significant power. The scenario of Wilders potentially participating in running the country has sparked concern among voters and sparked intense debate in the lead up to the election, with the results expected to reshape the political landscape of the Netherlands.
NETHERLANDS NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS
For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
