Where is Deshaun Watson’s Arrow Pointed? An NFL general manager once posed this question to me about robust quarterback contracts during a contentious negotiation with his franchise’s veteran starter. The player was frustrated, the agent was angry and the GM was explaining an offer far less than what free agency could secure for the QB down the line. The impasse, the GM said, was about “quarterback arrows.”
For the contract the agent was seeking, the GM wanted the player’s arrow to reflect future growth potential. “I want the arrow to be up, and his is like this …” drawing a flat line in the air with his finger “… until it eventually becomes this … ” veering the trajectory downward. “… and that’s when you get into problems with a quarterback contract.”
When considering NFL quarterbacks, I often think back to that conversation. The point the GM made was about answering a question with simplicity: How do you feel about your quarterback’s future? Is he ascending and getting better? Is he stagnating? Or is he regressing?
Of course, there’s a multitude of numbers and circumstances that explain why the arrow is doing what it’s doing. But before you get to that, there is usually an initial gut reaction. Name any veteran quarterback in the NFL right now, and you likely have an immediate arrow that jumps into your mind when it comes to his trajectory.
Matthew Stafford? Baker Mayfield? Jared Goff? Patrick Mahomes? An arrow likely jumped into your head. Now do it for Deshaun Watson.
If you are limited to his remarkable last half of football for the Browns, the arrow might be up. If you factor in the statistical similarities between 2022 and 2023, the arrow might be flat. And from the widest vantage, the arrow is likely down.
The fact that you can find some way to justify all three of those arrows for one player is probably an indication that things aren’t going well.
Watson had moments for the Browns this season, but also missed football at a position that requires an immense amount of fine-tuning, chemistry and physical repetition. The idea that a quarterback can ever go through nearly four years of various struggles and then recapture previously elite form is dubious, at best. And league history is littered with examples.
Watson had a rash of injuries this season and playing with ACL repairs in both knees. He took a lot of hits when he played with the Texans, too. Now he’s going to be playing with ACL repairs in both knees (one in college, the other with the Texans) and a surgery on his throwing shoulder. If he can come back from his shoulder surgery for the start of the 2024 campaign, he will have played 12 games in a span of three years and nine months.
Given all of that, the question remains: Where is his arrow pointing?
