There is growing concern about the pace and progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as Russian forces continue to hold strong. Western allies, including the United States, are skeptical about Ukraine’s ability to make significant progress, especially with the approaching fall and winter seasons. The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft has suggested that Ukraine needs to consider a “Plan B” that focuses on defense, as they are currently outmanned and outgunned. Some US officials have expressed frustration that Ukraine has not utilized its combat power effectively.
Despite these concerns, the Biden administration maintains that Ukraine will eventually succeed in recapturing Russian-occupied territory. Ukraine continues to chip away at Russian fortifications and search for weak points along the frontlines, urging patience. However, Maksym Skrypchenko, president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, believes that Ukraine’s current level of Western support is sufficient for survival but not enough for an effective counterattack.
Ukraine received modern tanks, armored carriers, and infantry fighting vehicles from NATO before launching the offensive. Some allies have also provided Soviet-era jets and long-range missiles. However, Skrypchenko notes that the US has withheld key weapon systems such as the Army Tactical Missile System and F-16 fighter jets. Ukraine also lacks sufficient artillery shells due to slow defense production in Western nations.
Skrypchenko argues that more advanced weapons would greatly enhance Ukraine’s ability to advance against Russian forces. He believes that Soviet-era jets are limited in their maneuvers and would be easily shot down, while the Army Tactical Missile System could be used to destroy key Russian-held bridges.
The current focus of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Ukrainian forces aim to break through to the Sea of Azov and cut off the land bridge to Crimea. In eastern Ukraine, they are attempting to retake territory in the Donetsk region. Both offensives face challenges such as trenches, minefields, Russian air superiority, and intense artillery defenses. Russian troops are resisting Ukraine’s advances, resulting in constant territory exchanges.
Branislav Slantchev, a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, believes that Ukraine is moving slowly to minimize casualties. While Ukraine is close to a breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia, according to Slantchev, the delay in receiving key weapons and armor has been a setback. He emphasizes that F-16s and the Army Tactical Missile System are not “wonder weapons” but can be considered game-changers.
The Pentagon characterizes the current phase of the war as a tough fight, but they commend the Ukrainian army for its past victories and ability to overcome challenges. The Biden administration has requested additional security aid of $13 billion for Ukraine from Congress, despite a recent CNN poll showing that most Americans oppose authorizing more aid.
So far, the counteroffensive has liberated around 100 square miles of territory within two months, compared to the thousands of square miles retaken in previous offensives. Russia has had months to construct and fortify its defenses, making it difficult for Ukraine to make rapid progress. However, Ukraine is adapting its tactics and maintaining the initiative by seizing small bits of territory with artillery support.
One of the biggest challenges for Ukraine, apart from the battlefield, is managing expectations in the West for immediate results. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for unity and patience during the offensive, urging everyone to closely monitor the progress of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In conclusion, Ukraine’s counteroffensive faces challenges and skepticism from Western allies, but the Biden administration remains committed to supporting Ukraine’s efforts. The current focus is on breaking through Russian defenses and recapturing occupied territory, but progress is slow due to the lack of advanced weapons and fortifications constructed by Russia. Ukraine is adjusting its tactics and gradually reclaiming its territory, but patience and support from the West are essential during this challenging endeavor.
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