China’s Reliance on Ukraine’s Food and Potential Salvation of the Black Sea Grain Deal

WASHINGTON — The United States and its Western allies are turning to China for assistance in resolving the disastrous fallout from Russia’s withdrawal from a vital U.N.-backed agriculture agreement.

China, a key ally of Moscow and the world’s second-largest economy, was the primary recipient of Ukrainian agricultural products under the renowned Black Sea Grain Initiative. However, last month, Russia abandoned the agreement, claiming that it only benefited Ukraine.

The deal, in effect for almost a year, helped ease Russia’s blockade in the Black Sea and established a humanitarian corridor for maritime trade, resulting in the transport of nearly 33 million metric tons of Ukrainian wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower meal on over 1,000 ships.

Since the agreement was established in July 2022, Chinese ports have received approximately 8 million metric tons of Ukrainian agricultural products, making China the largest buyer, as reported by the United Nations.

“With the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, China, as the biggest buyer of Ukrainian grain, is likely to face significant pressure from food price inflation,” stated David Riedel, founder of Riedel Research Group, in an interview with CNBC.

“Although they may have stockpiled some grain prior to the agreement’s breakdown, their reserves would only last a few weeks, not months,” he added. Riedel expressed concern over the possibility of food price inflation in China.

Read more: Collapse of the Black Sea grain deal could potentially prompt China to implement stimulus measures

U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, addressed the press on Tuesday, explaining that the Biden administration will prioritize addressing the global food crisis caused in part by the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The U.S. will have the opportunity to address this issue during its one-month presidency of the United Nations Security Council.

“We understand that food security is national security,” Thomas-Greenfield emphasized. She added, “Russia has launched a full-scale assault on the world’s breadbasket and is determined to deprive the world of Ukraine’s grains.”