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It has become a trendy topic in certain circles to analyze the conflict in Ukraine as a proxy war between the United States and China. According to this popular belief, Russia is China’s closest ally, and by offering assistance to Ukraine in its fight against the Russians, America is indirectly weakening China. However, this narrative oversimplifies the complexities at play.
Beijing sees the war through the lens of its own interests, not just as a partnership with Russia. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) aims to benefit the most from the conflict and is willing to let Russia, Ukraine, and their arms suppliers, particularly the United States, foot the bill. President Xi Jinping of China and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine understand this dynamic.
While it is important for the U.S. to support Ukraine due to Russia’s blatant violation of the country’s sovereignty, this support is crucial for maintaining regional security. Abandoning Ukraine completely could lead to doubts about America’s commitment to the region’s defense among vulnerable allies. Additionally, weakening Russia aligns with America’s interests, regardless of how it affects China. China may be a long-term threat, but it doesn’t mean that other threats should be ignored. Supporting Ukraine not only helps end the bloodshed but also indirectly weakens an adversary without risking American lives.
However, policymakers must not be deluded into thinking that their support for Ukraine will deter China from challenging the global or regional order. While the war may complicate some of Beijing’s immediate calculations, it also advances China’s long-term agenda. It is essential to understand that China and Russia are not allies, despite their strategic partnership stemming from their mutual opposition to American global leadership. China has only one formal ally, North Korea, and it even views that alliance as a burden. Beijing avoids agreements that would jeopardize its own security interests, especially when it involves a rival great power like Russia.
Russia and China share a lengthy border, a history of mutual hostility, and conflicting geopolitical interests. Although their shared animosity towards the American-led world order is pushing them closer, they do not trust each other. China expects its relationship with Russia to eventually revert to rivalry, just as the end of World War II led to renewed enmity between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Therefore, while China may perceive short-term disadvantages in its struggle against American global leadership due to Russia’s military setbacks and the strengthening of U.S. alliances prompted by the war, it also sees long-term benefits in a weakened Russia. A weaker Russia becomes more dependent on China and poses less of a threat in the future.
China is pleased that it reaps these benefits without engaging in direct conflict with Russia. Additionally, the U.S. is depleting some of its own military resources by providing arms to Ukraine. Although this hasn’t yet put the U.S. military at a significant disadvantage, it could if the war persists for a long time. However, China does not welcome the war and avoids prolonged conflict. It fears the possibility of nuclear war or developments that would force its involvement, such as a potential collapse of Putin’s regime. While China doesn’t necessarily need Putin, it prefers to keep him around to secure its own interests.
Nevertheless, China cannot change the reality of the war in Ukraine and sees it as an opportunity. China actively controls the international discourse surrounding its involvement in the conflict and wants to portray itself as a neutral party striving for peace. It accuses the U.S. of prolonging the conflict by providing arms to Ukraine, creating a narrative that has gained acceptance in the developing world. China’s calls for peace are not just words; it wants to be recognized as the international leader instrumental in ending the conflict. China has taken steps towards brokering a peace deal, sending a special envoy to work towards this goal. While it may not achieve this aspiration immediately, China hopes to position itself to dictate the terms of a future settlement, securing a significant political victory and enhancing its reputation on the world stage.
For now, Beijing is content to observe the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As long as the war doesn’t directly threaten Chinese interests or destabilize Russia’s regime, the CCP believes it will be the war’s greatest beneficiary, regardless of how much damage the Russian military sustains or who ultimately emerges victorious.
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